My anaylsis of 100+ polls shows that the 2010 LD voters who’ve switched to LAB are sticking and that’s bad news for the Tories

My anaylsis of 100+ polls shows that the 2010 LD voters who’ve switched to LAB are sticking and that’s bad news for the Tories

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Curtice is right: LD switchers aren’t going back “any time soon” In a broad-ranging interview just published Britain’s leading political scientist, Professor John Curtice made these observations about Labour’s polling position and GE2015. “..basically the reason why the Labour party is in the lead is because of the loss of Liberal Democrat support to Labour. It goes all the way back to 2010 and it’s not obvious that it’s going to go back anytime soon… ..I see no reason why…

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Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling would be even more informative if the candidates were named

Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling would be even more informative if the candidates were named

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The 14 CON held marginals that @LordAshcroft polled in May. It looks like these are the seats for his latest polling pic.twitter.com/mqPFWFk4MC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2014 @MSmithsonPB all revealed next week Mike! — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 19, 2014 Are the blues getting a first time incumbency bonus? I got into a good natured Twitter exchange last night with Lord Ashcroft about the seats that will be included in his next round of marginals polling due to…

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The Sunday Times YouGov findings on the reshuffle, Michael Gove, free schools, the “bedroom tax” and leaving the ECHR

The Sunday Times YouGov findings on the reshuffle, Michael Gove, free schools, the “bedroom tax” and leaving the ECHR

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YouGov poll finding on more women being in the cabinet pic.twitter.com/mGRDtJiNr7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2014 Are the Tories still seen as the “nasty party? Today's YouGov poll suggests that Cameron is making progress over the Tories being seen as the "nasty party". pic.twitter.com/MYX0ODEFhC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2014 Just 13% tell YouGov that the re-shuffle has made the Tory team of ministers look stronger. 16% say weaker — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2014 The…

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ComRes online and Opinium polls are out

ComRes online and Opinium polls are out

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Tonight’s polls are changes within the margin of error, though the Lib Dems will be delighted to be up by 2% in both polls. Opinium for the Observer shows Labour lead at 4pts in latest Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 34 (-1), Con 30 (+1), Ukip 17 (-1), Lib Dems 9 (+2). Cam and Mili personal ratings up. — Toby Helm (@tobyhelm) July 19, 2014 The ComRes supplementaries make for interesting (if depressing) reading for Dave and Ed. On the reshuffle doesn’t…

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Say hello to the Lilac Tories

Say hello to the Lilac Tories

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David Herdson on Cameron’s line-up for GE2015 Squaring circles is part of the business of politics.  One such conundrum David Cameron has to face is how to simultaneously make the party he leads more appealing to centrist floating voters while also attracting back those who’ve defected to UKIP.  On the face of it, those are two incompatible objectives: how can a party move both left and right at the same time?  The simple answer is it can’t; the more complex…

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Local By-Election Results : July 17th 2014

Local By-Election Results : July 17th 2014

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Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (SNP defence) Result: Scottish Nationalists 595 (25% -6%), Independent (MacGregor) 548 (23%), Labour 526 (22%), Conservatives 445 (18% +9%), Independent (Malloy) 301 (12%) Independent (MacGregor) GAIN from Scottish Nationalist on the fifth count on a swing of 7% from Ind to SNP Mabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias on Cornwall (UKIP defence) Result: Conservatives 406 (33% +5%), Liberal Democrats 405 (32% +9%), UKIP 271 (22% -7%), Labour 107 (9% unchanged), Mebynon Kernow 58…

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Henry G Manson says get on Andy Burnham as EdM’s successor – it might be a good bet

Henry G Manson says get on Andy Burnham as EdM’s successor – it might be a good bet

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Andy Burnham the overwhelming leader in latest @LabourList shadow cabinet rankings pic.twitter.com/B6kaB8p8qi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2014 Longstanding PBers will know that Henry G Manson’s has a great record with his tips on anything to do with LAB. He was dead right on EdM in 2010 and his guidance has proved pretty good over the years. This morning he emailed me to suggest that Andy Burnham was a great bet for next LAB leader. He cited as evidence…

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Good IndyRef poll for YES, LAB moves to 7% YouGov lead whilst UKIP has a dreadful night in latest by-elections

Good IndyRef poll for YES, LAB moves to 7% YouGov lead whilst UKIP has a dreadful night in latest by-elections

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YES edges forward with TNS #IndyRef YES moves to best position yet in a TNS-BMRB poll pic.twitter.com/9CUJZz3Vby — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2014 For whatever reason TNS and YouGov IndyRef polls have generally had the worst numbers for YES while Survation, ICM and PanelBase have had the best. Polling though is all about trends which is why the YES campaign is delighted by the latest from TNS-BMRB. After three other polls from other firms suggested that YES had stalled…

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