Concern about the economy continues its dramatic collapse – but that could mean it’ll be less of an issue at GE2015

Concern about the economy continues its dramatic collapse – but that could mean it’ll be less of an issue at GE2015

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The sharp & extraordinary decline of the economy as a key issue – @IpsosMORI Issues Index pic.twitter.com/VpJtLoS1sb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 Don’t assume that voters do gratitude All the economic indicators in recent months have been positive for the coalition and this is picked up in the July Ipsos-MORI Issues Index where concern about the economy has continued its sharp and quite dramatic fall. This is the monthly polling that has been carried out in exactly the…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation On A Night Like This, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. To all you lurkers, if you’re thinking Better the Devil You Know, nighthawks is Especially for You, it gives you a chance to delurk. I Should Be So Lucky if a few of you delurked. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant…

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For the first time UKIP move into the favourite slot in a Westminster seat

For the first time UKIP move into the favourite slot in a Westminster seat

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Ukip favourite to win S Thanet where it's said Farage will stand pic.twitter.com/3YAcDeUDY4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 South Thanet heading to be a great 3-way tussle I love Westminster seats battles where at least three parties are in with a shout. The betting on them can be very interesting and chances are that you’ll get longer than evens on the winner. South Thanet in Kent, won from LAB by pro-EU Tory, Laura Sandys, in May looks set…

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What I cannot understand given their age profile is the lack of concern by UKIP voters about pensions and health

What I cannot understand given their age profile is the lack of concern by UKIP voters about pensions and health

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Latest YouGov issues data showing relative lack of interest by UKIP voters in health & pensions. Odd given their age. pic.twitter.com/R2mmUIuZGF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2014 The table above is the latest issues polling by YouGov broken down by concerns for the country and for responders own families. Given that the age profile of kippers is tilted to the higher end of the range their views on the lack of importance of, say, education is understandable. But what…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation On A Night Like This, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, I Want You, to delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Britain has very little to fear from the ECHR. So why are so many Tories so afraid of it? Without older voters the Greens have…

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Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of marginals polling finds that UKIP is hurting LAB more than CON

Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of marginals polling finds that UKIP is hurting LAB more than CON

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The big message from latest @LordAshcroft marginals polling is that LAB is now being hurt more than CON by rise of UKIP in key seats — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2014 Two months ago @LordAshcroft 's marginals polling found LAB set to gain 13 of the 14 seats polled. Now that's down to 10 with UKIP taking 2. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2014 UKIP in lead in two of the seats polled UKIPNnow in lead in Thurrock…

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Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got closest with ICM in second place

Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got closest with ICM in second place

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With so much variation in the UKIP share in recent polls it is perhaps worth recalling that the firm that got it most right the last time they were tested, the May 22nd Euros, was YouGov. The figures are in the chart above and it is interesting that YouGov and ICM, the ones that did best on May 22nd, are continuing to show UKIP with smaller shares for the general election compared with other pollsters. Later this morning Lord Ashcroft…

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Tories drop 5 and UKIP up 3 in this week’s Ashcroft national poll

Tories drop 5 and UKIP up 3 in this week’s Ashcroft national poll

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Yet again the Ashcroft national phone poll has surprised us. This time with a 5% drop in CON support, 2% drop for LAB and a 3% increase for UKIP. Last week the Ashcroft figures were Con 32%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 14%, Green 6% This compares with the earlier Populus online phone poll that had the LAB lead moving from zero to 5%. Both are featured in the chart above. The Ashcroft changes are bigger than the margin…

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