An inconvenient fact for Boris backers is that more people tell pollsters they’ll support him than actually give him their vote

An inconvenient fact for Boris backers is that more people tell pollsters they’ll support him than actually give him their vote

Why we should be sceptical about all Boris polling For those like me who love watching political battles the ongoing tussle for the Tory leadership between Boris Johnson and George Osborne will be a pleasure to behold. Both have their strong points and both, it is said, have set their hearts on being Dave’s successor. If the Tories don’t hold on in government next May then that intriguing confrontation could be only nine months away. One factor that apparently is…

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Local By-Election Preview: August 7th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: August 7th 2014

Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazing on Epping Forest (Con Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Conservatives 37, Residents 12, Liberal Democrats 3, Independents 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 2, Green 1, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 16) Result of ward at last election (2011): Conservatives 585 (84%), Greens 69 (10%), Liberal Democrats 43 (6%) Candidates duly nominated: Robert Glozier (Con), William Hartington (Green), Ron McEvoy (UKIP), Arnold Verrall (Lib Dem) Epping Forest, a rock solid Conservative seat…

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The IndyRef YES price touches rock bottom as punters give their verdict on Salmond’s failure to win Tuesday’s debate

The IndyRef YES price touches rock bottom as punters give their verdict on Salmond’s failure to win Tuesday’s debate

#IndyRef YES sinking fast on the Betfair exchange. Now down to a 13.5% chance pic.twitter.com/ip9HHJQePT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 7, 2014 The time for recovery is getting shorter The betting on the Scottish IndyRef has moved further to NO during the day even though, as yet, we have yet to see the first full post debate referendum poll. The latest price traded on Betfair as I write, (1420) was at the 7.4 level which converts to a 13.5% chance….

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Survation poll in 13 key CON held marginals finds CON to LAB swing of 9%

Survation poll in 13 key CON held marginals finds CON to LAB swing of 9%

New marginals poll by Survation for UNITE union finds 9% CON to LAB swing in key seats pic.twitter.com/q3s7B8pLpS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 6, 2014 If this actually happened EdM would win a comfortable majority Many of the seats in the poll were included within the recent phases of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals polling though his latest numbers suggest a move about one half of what Survation has found. A 9% swing is far better for Labour than any recent national…

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PB Nighthawks is open

PB Nighthawks is open

Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Boris Johnson lays down the gauntlet to David Cameron For now Cameron will reap the rewards of Boris Johnson’s return. The Tories’ star player can defend the party’s leader against Nigel Farage…

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Boris playing a full part in the CON GE2015 campaign could help win back some of the kipper defectors

Boris playing a full part in the CON GE2015 campaign could help win back some of the kipper defectors

Ladbrokes http://t.co/5FG1QdHZUh slash the odds in Boris being next CON leader from 5/1 to 9/4. He's new favourite — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 6, 2014 YouGov polling from February on the Boris effect & UKIP supports. pic.twitter.com/RR1Be5fgXf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 6, 2014 The big Tory news today has been the announcement by Boris that he’s to seek a constituency to fight at GE2015 so he can return to the commons. Back in February YouGov carried out some polling…

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The Salmond-Darling encounter: Watch the full debate here

The Salmond-Darling encounter: Watch the full debate here

Given how difficult it was for those outside Scotland to watch last night here are three YouTube videos of the entire event. Part 2 is perhaps the sharpest. Tonight's #ScotDecides #indyref @icmresearch debate poll versus Survation's pre-debate expectations attached: pic.twitter.com/aIvZ32x3KP — Survation (@Survation) August 5, 2014