Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Does Cameron have an Iraq policy? Or is he just making it up? Iraq crisis: You can’t win military campaigns without boots on the ground The problem with Harriet Harman’s proposed gambling tax…
An opportunity for the Tories in the 2015 budget? One of the great things about taking part in Edinburgh Festival of Politics was being able to meet up again with Professor John Curtice, who must be the county’s leading political scientist. Talking about UKIP voters he made a point that I’ve not really looked at before – their economic pessimism particularly when related to their own situations. Look at the chart above based on data from yesterday’s YouGov/ST poll. The…
Window display from shop in Edinburgh's Royal Mile pic.twitter.com/tq1c1MeNKw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 18, 2014 YouGov/Times poll: After excluding DKs it’s YES 43%+3: NO 57%(-3) I’ve just got back from three days in Edinburgh where I was totally immersed in the momentous decision that the Scottish people are due to make in the referendum on September 18th. I was a panellist at the Festival of Politics which was held in the superb Scottish Parliament Building just across the road…
The third poll this weekend shows the momentum is with Yes. With a little over four weeks to go it would appear the momentum is with Yes, as one of the pollsters that has had traditionally had the largest leads for No, shows significant movement towards Yes. CORRECTION New @YouGov /Times #indyref poll changes since Aug 4 Yes 38 % (+3) No 51% (-4) DK 11% (+1) Exc DK's Yes 43% (+3) No 57% (-3) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August 17,…
August is supposed to be the silly season,  but for the second consecutive August, it appears Britain may intervene militarily in the Middle East. Last year, parliament ended that expedition before it even began. But in today’s Telegraph, Cameron writes Isil poses a direct and deadly threat to Britain. The poisonous extremism on the march in Iraq and Syria affects us all – and we have no choice but to rise to the challenge. YouGov over the last few days have…
Tonight sees two Indyref polls out. First up Panelbase for Yes Scotland, historically Panelbase have produced some of the smallest No leads. The fieldwork was this week, between the 12th and the 15th, The first question asked was the referendum question, in the past some Panelbase polls have not done this. Correction New Panelbase #indyref poll Changes since last month Yes 42 (+1) No 46 (-2) DK 12 (+1) Exc DK's Yes 48 (+2) No 52 (-2) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August…
UKIP sees a six point surge with Opinium The usual caveats apply, this is but one poll, we need to see other polling to see if this UKIP surge is occurring or not. My own thought is that, this is more a return to the status quo for Opinium with regards to UKIP, their last poll, a fortnight ago, had UKIP down to their lowest point since February 2013, and that didn’t feel right. This UKIP’s highest score with…
Lord Ashcroft has polled the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, about Boris, and it generally makes for great reading for the Mayor of London. The phone poll was conducted this week. It should be noted, the standard VI poll not mentioning Boris, shows a Con to Lab swing of 5.5%, which would indicate an approximate 3% Labour lead nationwide, which is in line with the national polling. The one downside for Boris is 50% of the voters don’t want him…