After a day dominated by two big polls IndyRef NO is the biggest betting loser

After a day dominated by two big polls IndyRef NO is the biggest betting loser

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Inevitably with only 15 days left to go before Scotland decides on partition there’s been a lot of betting activity on the referendum outcome with the money going on YES. YouGov’s 6% NO lead, down from 18% in July, has given partition campaigners real hope that what they’ve been campaigning for decades might just conceivably happen. This poll, and the way it has been highlighted by the media, has all the making of a narrative changer even though all it…

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Lord Ashcroft’s Clacton poll shows UKIP 32% ahead

Lord Ashcroft’s Clacton poll shows UKIP 32% ahead

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Clacton poll by @LordAshcroft has UKIP 56% (+56%) Con 24% (-29%) Lab 16% (-9.1%) LD 2% (-10.9%) Others 2% (-75) Changes since the 2010 GE — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 2, 2014 Lord Ashcroft has published his poll on the Clacton by-election, which is to be held on the 9th of October, which is David Cameron’s birthday, like the survation poll, it shows Douglas Carswell comfortably winning for UKIP, the polling on him personally shows why he is course to become…

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August’s Politicalbetting polling average: LAB recovery continues

August’s Politicalbetting polling average: LAB recovery continues

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CON and UKIP edge up too; Others and LDs take a knock The one-time received wisdom that August polls should be ignored because summer sun and silly season made sampling and support unstable took a good hit last month when Mike noted the accuracy of ICM’s August polls in the run-up to three of the last four elections.  Of course, polls are snapshots not predictions and are bound by a political equivalent of Newton’s First Law: polling taken outside periods…

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If the latest YouGov IndyRef poll is right then the outcome could be very close indeed

If the latest YouGov IndyRef poll is right then the outcome could be very close indeed

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YouGov IndyRef poll for the Times finds NO leads down to just 6%. It was 18% in July. %age of LAB voters supporting YES up from 13% to 30 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 YouGov/Times IndyRef poll finds undecided voters splitting to YES by 2-1. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 YouGov's Peter Kellner says "Salmond is within touching distance of victory"; http://t.co/eVCF04rult — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 Via @benrileysmith How YouGov IndyRef polls have…

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Tory hopes of benefitting from a first time incumbency bonus depend on first time incumbents standing again

Tory hopes of benefitting from a first time incumbency bonus depend on first time incumbents standing again

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Dudley South becomes the 8th CON seat where the party won't benefit from the 1st time incumbency bonus pic.twitter.com/IsGnBTU9w4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 1, 2014 The more that follow Kelly route the bigger the task at GE2015 Dudley South was won by the Tories at GE2010 with a majority of 10.1% and is LAB target number 75. On current national polling it is one of a critical batch of seats that Labour needs to gain in order to secure…

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UKIP Clacton price the big mover in today’s political betting market report

UKIP Clacton price the big mover in today’s political betting market report

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LAB most seats/EdM next PM/ IndyRef NO all up as well Inevitably given the Survation Clacton poll the big mover has been the UKIP by-election price – now rated as an 88% chance. It is hard to see what could happen to change this and as we get closer the the date you would expect this to get tighter. EdM for next PM and LAB most seas all up a bit and there’s been a small up-tick for an IndyRef…

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The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

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The devastating detail from the @Survation -MoS Clacton poll. Where the UKIP is coming from. http://t.co/vnARzqe6NN pic.twitter.com/y8OASfgEud — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 31, 2014 The constituency, though, is a one-off In all the time I have been following and analysing polls there has never been anything as sensational as the Survation Clacton poll for the Mail on Sunday published overnight. The figures are extraordinary and point to an overwhelming victory for Douglas Carswell in his new colours. The thing we…

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