The weekend polls could impact on these betting prices

The weekend polls could impact on these betting prices

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Saturday/Sunday morning is generally an interesting time for political punters – even more so when we have an absorbine by-election in the pipeline as well as the IndyRef. I’m hoping that we might even see a Clacton poll though the timescale has been very tight. There’ve also been hints of at least one IndyRef survey and who knows what the next round of GE2015 polling is going to show. The chart above is going to be a regular. Mike Smithson…

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David Herdson on what Carswell’s defection could mean for 2015

David Herdson on what Carswell’s defection could mean for 2015

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A by-election victory could secure a TV debate place for Farage The defection of one MP or another towards the end of a parliament is nothing particularly unusual.  The decision of one to resign and re-contest his or her seat is.  Were it not for the vote of even greater significance taking place in Scotland next month, the Clacton by-election could have been the seminal political moment of the parliament.  Depending on the two results, it still might be. A…

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Carswell seems to have had an impact on the GE2015 betting markets but not Rotherham

Carswell seems to have had an impact on the GE2015 betting markets but not Rotherham

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GE2015 betting: LAB majority chances on Betfair move up 3 to nearly 35% following the Carswell defection to UKIP pic.twitter.com/mjfWZx9rwv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 29, 2014 Betfair GE2015 majority betting: CON chances drop by 3% following Carswell move pic.twitter.com/P0JpwViLgH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 29, 2014 Maybe the weekend polls will change that?

Local By-Election Result: August 28th 2014

Local By-Election Result: August 28th 2014

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North Jesmond on Newcastle upon Tyne (Lib Dem Defence) Result: Liberal Democrats 711 (53% +16%), Labour 320 (24% -9%), Conservative 117 (9% -9%), United Kingdom Indepdendence Party 112 (8%), Green 94 (7% -5%) Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 391 (29%) on a swing of 12.5% from Labour to Liberal Democrat This result will be seized upon by Northern Liberal Democrats as a suggestion that the constant hammering they have been getting in recent years may be coming to…

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If Boris is serious about helping his party he’d seek to be the CON candidate in Clacton

If Boris is serious about helping his party he’d seek to be the CON candidate in Clacton

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The mayor’s the only one who could stop UKIP in its tracks One of the big political decisions that the Tories will have to make in the next few weeks is who should be the candidate to fight UKIP defector, Douglas Carswell, in Clacton. The consequences for Cameron’s party of a UKIP victory in the seat are enormous and they have to do everything they can to stop him. Boris Johnson has decided he wants to return to the commons…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: August 28th 2014

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: August 28th 2014

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Yes, we all know that the media is focusing on Clacton this evening but let us not forget that Clacton is not the only show in town! North Jesmond on Newcastle upon Tyne (Lib Dem Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 52, Liberal Democrats 24, Independents 2 (Labour majority of 26) Result of ward at last election (2011): Liberal Democrats 870 (37%), Labour 770 (33%), Conservatives 419 (18%), Greens 273 (12%0 Candidates duly nominated: Duncan Crute (Con),…

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The real worry for the Tories is if Carswell is able to take much of his organisation with him

The real worry for the Tories is if Carswell is able to take much of his organisation with him

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Douglas Carswell, red hot favourite to win his seat, Clacton, for UKIP. See PaddyPower http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T pic.twitter.com/V01q41DqqX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 28, 2014 And will his defection encourage others? Back in 2005 Douglas Carswell was one of a select group of Tories who won seats from LAB. He took Harwich. Then, five years later in the new seat of Clacton, he held on thanks to a swing from LAB of 9.7%, The national swing was 5% which is a good indication…

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