Why I’ve backed Philip Hammond as next Prime Minister at 33/1 (and Sajid Javid at 50/1)

Why I’ve backed Philip Hammond as next Prime Minister at 33/1 (and Sajid Javid at 50/1)

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What if the referendum outcome triggered Cameron’s departure? A few months ago, there was speculation that if Scotland votes Yes, then David Cameron would resign as Prime Minister, that speculation has amped up in recent days. The Sunday Times reported “several Conservative MPs are prepared to go public and demand David Cameron quit and two Tory ministers have warned colleagues that they would also feel compelled to resign if there was a “yes” vote.” Whilst I still have my doubts that David…

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Memo to Mr. Salmond: Don’t now throw it all away like Kinnock did in 1992

Memo to Mr. Salmond: Don’t now throw it all away like Kinnock did in 1992

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Galvanising the NO vote is the biggest danger for YES Suddenly a victory for YES looks possible. Two pollsters suggest that things have moved sharply in its direction and there are just 9 days left. Yesterday in one of a series of radio and TV interviews I was repeatedly asked whether the polls themselves could impact on the result and could I think of an example. The one I chose was Neil Kinnock in 1992. By election day the polls…

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It really is squeaky bum time: TNS has the gap down to just one percent

It really is squeaky bum time: TNS has the gap down to just one percent

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YouGov’s weekend figures echoed in new face to face poll The YES and NO campaigns in the Scottish IndyRef are running neck-and-neck after a dramatic swing over the past month, according to the much anticipated new poll from TNS which does its fieldwork face to face. This is the first Indyref poll for more than a month that is not online and gives us something solid in itself as well as a bench mark to assess other polling. The figures…

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At last..a non-internet Scottish IndyRef poll

At last..a non-internet Scottish IndyRef poll

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TNS-BMRB due to be published a day early One of the features of the referendum polling is that so much of it has been Online. Survation, Panelbase and, of course, YouGov poll in this way. In addition the ICM polls that we see are the same – unlike the firm’s long-standing phone poll series for the Guardian. The problem that online polling creates is that there is a level of self-selection in who takes part. The very fact that you…

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A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party”?

A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party”?

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Corporeal looks at the BBC’s Clacton decision One of the unresolved questions surrounding the next general election is how the media will treat UKIP, will they be pushed into the background as coverage hones in on the Lib Dems, (and especially) Labour, and the Conservatives or will they get brought into the mainstream debate and get a share of the precious oxygen of publicity. Most interesting, and probably most symbolic of all is whether they will get a look in…

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NO now back above a 70% chance on Betfair’s IndyRef market

NO now back above a 70% chance on Betfair’s IndyRef market

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YES needs more polls like YouGov As can be expected the weekend polls have triggered off a lot of betting activity. The market we can monitor best is the Betfair exchange where the price of the last trade is being constantly updated. The YES price on the Betfair exchange did touch 33%. It has now slipped aback a touch. Unlike many political markets there are a lot of punters on either side ready to risk their cash and the total…

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Remember it was the YouGov polling panel that most exaggerated the last “political earthquake” – the Cleggasm in April 2010

Remember it was the YouGov polling panel that most exaggerated the last “political earthquake” – the Cleggasm in April 2010

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Why I am waiting for TNS-BMRB The big problem we have with last night’s IndyRef polling sensation from YouGov is that so far it has not been supported by other firms. Panelbase, which traditionally has shown YES in its most favourable position came out with no change from from its mid-August IndyRef poll – a 4% lead. Given that most of the latest Panelbase fieldwork coincided with YouGov’s latest YES lead poll then it is indeed surprising that it has…

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YouGov poll has Yes leading by 1% – A month ago, no led by 22 – Update Panelbase still has No ahead

YouGov poll has Yes leading by 1% – A month ago, no led by 22 – Update Panelbase still has No ahead

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YouGov #indyref poll is out, YES IS AHEAD (changes since last poll) Exc DKs Yes 51% (+4) No 49% (-4) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 6, 2014 YouGov/ST poll Labour voters switching to Salmond in droves. 35% now back independence up from 18% a month ago — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) September 6, 2014 YouGov/ST poll: Every age group now backing independence except the over 60s. Women, the rich, the poor all switching to Salmond — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) September 6, 2014 As ever…

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