The Ed Miliband speech – The Highlights

The Ed Miliband speech – The Highlights

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  Ed's speech to conference pic.twitter.com/0kUkZtWCLI — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 23, 2014 Highlights from Ed's speech pic.twitter.com/v8sI8iuRvZ — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 23, 2014 Highlights from Ed's speech – Part II pic.twitter.com/5ilxSCgKA6 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 23, 2014 But will it be overshadowed by events elsewhere? But did Obama overshadow Ed's speech? pic.twitter.com/XCJbgHtWaL — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 23, 2014 Apologies, but I’ve not been able to watch the speech in full, I only…

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Ed’s big day – But is the big news of the day just outside of Manchester?

Ed’s big day – But is the big news of the day just outside of Manchester?

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His speech from last year Ed’s last two party conference speeches have dominated the political landscape, two years ago it was the One Nation speech, last year it was the energy price freeze speech. Both speeches saw a temporary uplift in his personal ratings. This year, given that this is his last speech to conference before the general election, I’m expecting a major announcement, my own hunch, based purely on my feelings, is that we’re going to get something to…

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Why I’ve taken the 6/1 on Alistair Carmichael to be the next to leave the cabinet

Why I’ve taken the 6/1 on Alistair Carmichael to be the next to leave the cabinet

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In the summer, there were stories that Jo Swinson will replace Alistair Carmichael as Scottish Secretary following the independence referendum regardless of the result.  During the last weeks of the indyref campaign, there were stories that Carmichael would resign immediately in the event of a Yes, which pushed his price out to as low as 1/3 last week. Given he was 1/3  and 5/6 at various stages last week, I thought the 5/6 was value, with the stories in the summer he would make…

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Interview with the punter who bet 900k on no winning the Indyref

Interview with the punter who bet 900k on no winning the Indyref

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listen to ‘Jeremy speaks to gambler who placed £900,000 bet on 'No' vote ’ on Audioboo   If you click the play button above, you’ll be able to listen to the interview.   Here’s a link to an article accompanying the interview. I always find it fascinating listening to the reasons and strategies why other people bet the way they do, because if they’re successful, it is will be wise to replicate their approach in the future, if they’re not…

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The polling says UKIP are the most extreme and the least fit to govern party

The polling says UKIP are the most extreme and the least fit to govern party

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From the Ipsos-Mori that featured this morning, Ipsos-Mori asked the following “I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…” The two findings that stood out were UKIP were comfortably viewed as the most extreme, and the least fit to govern in answer to that question.   My own thinking is these are the kind of findings that will…

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Understanding the Ed Miliband polling paradox

Understanding the Ed Miliband polling paradox

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How are Labour’s maintaining its poll leads, despite Ed’s poor ratings? One of the things that has been consistent in the last few years, the voters don’t rate Ed Miliband and he often trails David Cameron on most polling questions. In the past, I’ve shown that Ed Miliband’s ratings as Leader of the Opposition are very poor compared to his predecessors, only Michael Foot had worse ratings one year before a General Election, yet Labour still continue to generally lead…

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The SNP might have lost the referendum but its support reaches new high

The SNP might have lost the referendum but its support reaches new high

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Survation find that one in two Scot would gibe it their vote Details have been published this afternoon of a Survation phone poll in Scotland carried out in the immediate aftermath of the referendum defeat. The figures are in the chart above and show shares which I believe have the SNP at a new high in any poll. Clearly the high profile and the hugely energised electorate have given the party a huge boost. The numbers are a timely reminder…

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The IndyRef maybe over but a fierce flare-up is going on over the polling

The IndyRef maybe over but a fierce flare-up is going on over the polling

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The Mail on Sunday this morning Mail on Sunday asks if the YouGov 2% YES poll was a rogue & cost UK £45bn http://t.co/CQ393tPpzF pic.twitter.com/sYWq9Yqhk2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2014 YouGov’s Kellner responds War of words between developing Mail/S & YouGov's Kellner http://t.co/La4AQIJlkv over that YES 2% poll 2 wks ago pic.twitter.com/EVGeHaFsBq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2014 Some polling lessons for an EU referendum? Two things gave that 2% YES lead its greater potency: the advance hyping…

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