Local By-Election Preview: September 25th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: September 25th 2014

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Epping, Hemnal on Epping Forest (Conservative Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Conservatives 37, Residents 12, Liberal Democrats 3, United Kingdom Independence Party 2, Independents 2, Greens 1, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 16) Result of last election in ward (2011): Conservative 951 (42%), Liberal Democrats 821 (36%), Labour 231 (10%), UKIP 185 (8%), Green 83 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Kim Adams (Lib Dem), Nigel Avey (Con), Andrew Smith (UKIP), Anna Widdup (Green) By-elections held during the conference…

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UKIP claims two more Tories ready to defect: Party secretary says MPs will unveiled within days

UKIP claims two more Tories ready to defect: Party secretary says MPs will unveiled within days

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The betting angle as rumours emerge of 2 more Tory MPs defecting to UKIP http://t.co/aA3iDG9kEl pic.twitter.com/oxsEIjo4DT — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 25, 2014 Today reports emerged that Senior UKIP figures are claiming two more Tory MPs are ‘in the bag’ and will be unveiled as defectors within days. To the alarm of Conservative HQ, Ukip party secretary Matthew Richardson has boasted privately that two turncoats have agreed to switch parties, according to two separate sources.  Mr Richardson has told colleagues…

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Corporeal on constitutional reform

Corporeal on constitutional reform

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If there’s a consistent tradition in British constitutional reform, it’s a philosophy of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” (and usually to make the fix a patch up of the specific problem, or what Toby Fenwick dubbed an ‘inelegant fudge’). If you wanted to squeeze it into a metaphor (always fun) then it is a long-standing mansion. Ancient in parts, with extensions and alterations added through the years. Bits have been built, rebuilt, done up knocked down, expanded, downsized,…

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LAB’s strategy in Heywood and Middleton is blindingly obvious: Talk up UKIP threat to get tactical anti-UKIP votes

LAB’s strategy in Heywood and Middleton is blindingly obvious: Talk up UKIP threat to get tactical anti-UKIP votes

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Result in Heywood and Middleton at GE 2010 pic.twitter.com/l8HQ2vq4SC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 24, 2014 And you know what? They’ll probably succeed Suddenly the Heywood and Middleton by-election two weeks from today is not looking like the foregone conclusion that it appeared when the vacancy was created following the death of the popular MP Jim Dobbin. In the past couple of days there have been are a wave of stories about the possibility of UKIP taking the hitherto rock…

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The limits of private polling

The limits of private polling

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What do Alex Salmond & Mitt Romney have in common? http://t.co/V9a2WYSixk pic.twitter.com/rxTLcE8rb4 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 24, 2014 Both had private polling showing they were going to win. For we followers and obsessives of opinion polls, there are two words that grab our attention like no others, those two words are “private polling”, there’s some belief that “private polling” is much more sophisticated and accurate, than the normal public polling, but is it? Mitt Romney’s internal polling in…

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First polling on EdM’s policy plans get quite good public support

First polling on EdM’s policy plans get quite good public support

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Survation have conducted an instant reaction poll on Ed Miliband’s speech. Note, on the tabs, I’ve condensed the questions asked down to a brief outline of the policy for formatting reasons, the actual questions asked by survation are more comprehensive. As we can see, all of the major policy announcements enjoy either majority or plurality support, so Ed will be delighted, especially if it leads to an increase in Labour’s share of the vote in the voting intention polls. However,…

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Some of tomorrow’s front pages and tonight’s yougov.

Some of tomorrow’s front pages and tonight’s yougov.

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GUARDIAN: Miliband's 2.5bn pledge puts NHS at heart of election battle #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/ODupyBb7dQ — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) September 23, 2014 INDEPENDENT: Obama's Damascene conversion #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/i3JnDAhrmH — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) September 23, 2014 Tonight’s YouGov makes for pleasant reading for Labour and Ed. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead up five to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) September 23, 2014 I’d remember the two usual caveats, polling…

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