Rochester and Strood: The betting begins with UKIP the odds-on favourite

Rochester and Strood: The betting begins with UKIP the odds-on favourite

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Rochester & Strood byelection odds: 2/5 UKIP 3/1 Cons 8/1 Labour — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 28, 2014   My initial thinking is to back the Tories and Labour, based on the following tweets last night, and well Labour could come through the middle. Hopefully other bookies will open markets on this by election. No 10 source on the Mark Reckless byelection: "We would hope to win it" — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) September 27, 2014 (Significant because No10 don't say that about…

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As we await the Lord Ashcroft polling this afternoon

As we await the Lord Ashcroft polling this afternoon

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Here’s a preview of what to expect (Note these are my selected highlights) Just over a quarter of those who voted Conservative in 2010 said they would vote for a different party in an election tomorrow. Nearly three-quarters of these now support Ukip, with most of the remainder going to Labour. Most of those who have switched from the Tories say they will still consider voting for the party next May. About 1 in 8 of those who did not…

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It’s like back to the 90s for the Tories on what is turning out to be Cameron’s Black Saturday

It’s like back to the 90s for the Tories on what is turning out to be Cameron’s Black Saturday

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Today reminds me of the 1990s and the end of John Major’s administration. First up was Mark Reckless’ defection to UKIP and in the last hour or so, Brooks Newmark, the Conservative minister for civil society, resigns after being caught sending explicit photographs of himself to women over the internet.  For those who were optimistic that the Tories would remain in power post May 2015, today probably extinguished those hopes. I still think there’s one defection to come, timed for maximum…

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Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP

Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP

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Not the start Cameron wanted before the Tory conference Mark Reckless Tory MP defects to UKIP — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 27, 2014 UPDATE Mark Reckless follows the Carswell principle and forces a by-election in his seat. — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 27, 2014 UPDATE II – VIDEO OF RECKLESS ANNOUNCING HIS DEFECTION UPDATE III – constituency phone polling by Survation in Rotherham, Boston & Skegness and North Thanet New constituency phone polling by @Survation in Rotherham, Boston…

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David Herdson on whether Miliband can breeze to victory on the strength of not being Tory

David Herdson on whether Miliband can breeze to victory on the strength of not being Tory

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Is Labour keeping its powder dry or was that all there is? Like many a football team 2-1 up in a cup tie with ten minutes to go, a cautious defensiveness seems to have settled over the Labour Party, judging by their conference just gone.  The contrast with last year’s headline-grabbing energy price freeze policy was stark.  The big announcements were to increase the minimum wage by about 4p a year more than the average RPI rate for the current…

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Local By-Election Results : September 25th 2014 – UPDATE and a Marf cartoon

Local By-Election Results : September 25th 2014 – UPDATE and a Marf cartoon

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Epping, Hemnal on Epping Forest (Conservative Defence) Result: Liberal Democrats 607 (43% +7%), Conservatives 386 (28% -14%), UKIP 339 (24% +16%), Green 69 (5% +1%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 221 (15%) on a swing of 10.5% from Con to Lib Dem Lovelace on Guildford (Conservative Defence) Result: Liberal Democrats 555 (61% +47%), Conservatives 255 (28% -43%), UKIP 63 (7%), Labour 32 (4% -11%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 300 (33%) on…

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Ipsos Mori issues index for September is out

Ipsos Mori issues index for September is out

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The two topics Ed forgot in his speech, remain the public’s top two issues, unsurprisingly, Defence/Foreign Affairs/Terrorism is the biggest riser. The @IpsosMORI issues index for September. The 2 issues Ed forgot in his speech, remain the public's top 2 issues pic.twitter.com/oE54vkmHTx — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 26, 2014 The first Ipsos-Mori issues index was published forty years ago, here’s what the issues were back in September 1974 The first @IpsosMORI issues index was published forty years ago, here's…

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Henry G Manson on where LAB stands post confernence and his views on the leadership

Henry G Manson on where LAB stands post confernence and his views on the leadership

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“A couple of days ago, after Andy Burnham’s LAB conference speech I emailed Henry to get his views on whether Burnham could replace EdM before GE2015. This is his response” – Mike Smithson Hi Mike, there’s a few questions to address before we get to whether Andy Burnham will replace Ed Miliband before the election. First of all when would Ed go? It would have to be in the next month or not at all. The new leader really needs…

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