Marf on Theresa May’s new anti-terrorist measures
If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here.
Memo to the Tories: Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement
Since the defection of Mark Reckless to UKIP, I’ve not been surprised at the opprobrium heaped at Mark Reckless from the Tories, mostly because of his timing and his assurances that he wouldn’t defect. Tory MP to BuzzFeed on Mark Reckless defecting: “I can’t say the word c**t but he’s a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse.” — Jim Waterson (@jimwaterson) September 28, 2014 The above tweet, shows the depth of the anger, the thing that…
Lord Ashcroft tells the Tories that first time incumbency bonus is not a right – its something that has to be earned
Why things might be very different on May 7th next year One of the great hopes that the Tories have clung onto as their polling deficits continue is what’s known as “first time incumbency bonus” – the extra benefit that those MPs defending their seats for the first time have experienced in the past. The chart above shows the average increases in CON votes shares last time based on different categories of seat. As can be seen new candidates seeking…
Marf on The Curse of the Paisley Pyjamas
If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here.
Iain Dale says a defection is imminent
Told by a normally reliable source another Tory UKIP defection is imminent. Stand by your beds. — Iain Dale (@IainDale) September 29, 2014 Just taken the 33/1 and 20/1 on Davies and Henderson on the next Tory MP to defect pic.twitter.com/JxE6APLnTd — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 29, 2014 TSE Update on UKIP defection. Sources tell me it's not an MP. — Iain Dale (@IainDale) September 29, 2014
Corporeal looks at electoral precedent
The next election result is likely to be a strange one, as the following Ipsos-Mori tweet alludes to No gov increase in vote share since 1955, no opposition in office after 1 term out since 1931, no 2 hung parliaments in a row since 1910… — Ipsos MORI (@IpsosMORI) September 22, 2014 (On a follow up tweet they noted that it should read no majority government, Wilson’s calling of a swift 2nd election in 1974 produced a small uptick for…
New marginals polling from ComRes find 5.5% CON to LAB swing
There’s been a sharp move to LAB since last poll in June A new ComRes / ITV News poll of the 40 most marginal Labour-Conservative constituencies, shows Labour holding an 11 point lead over the Conservatives. At the 2010 General Election the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats so the swing is 5.5% The latest figures together with comparisons on GE2010 and the last such poll by ComRes in June are shown in the chart above….
Lord Ashcroft poll is out – Labour is on course for a majority
There’s a 6 point swing from Con to Lab in this polling – This would put Ed Miliband into Downing Street with a majority of 62, assuming UNS. The @LordAshcroft polling pic.twitter.com/KcMyqbTeEO — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 28, 2014 It also makes for unpleasant reading for the Lib Dems, as Lord Ashcroft notes, A lesson from the blue-yellow marginals. Incumbency is not enough, it appears that the Yellows are on course to lose seats to both the Tories and…