The Tories become the favourites in the Rochester by-election

The Tories become the favourites in the Rochester by-election

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PaddyPower now make the Cons favourite to win the Rochester by-election. UKIP evens, CON 5/6 http://t.co/1j2fiIYXxK pic.twitter.com/mgbt8ZGZNA — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 2, 2014 In spite of any publicly available polling, punters’ money is backing the Tories. With Paddy Power, William Hill the Tories are the favourites now, whilst at Betfair and Ladbrokes it is neck and neck between UKIP and the Tories, The Tories were 3/1 on Sunday when these markets opened. My thoughts on why this is are…

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September’s pbc poll average: UKIP recovers ground, Lab and LD down, Cons steady

September’s pbc poll average: UKIP recovers ground, Lab and LD down, Cons steady

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For the yellows a record low – but no panic September might have been one of the most dramatic months in British politics since the last general election, with the near-dissolution of the three-centuries old Anglo-Scottish Union but you wouldn’t know it from the polls.  That the Yes and No camps crossed party lines and brought opponents together might have had something to do with it; more likely, it’s that the majority of the UK electorate, in England, have moved…

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The early front pages look good for Dave

The early front pages look good for Dave

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At Last, A Real Tory Premier: our splash tomorrow on Cameron's tax offer to middle Britain #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/78V1Qq5CL4 — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) October 1, 2014 Thursday's Telegraph – "Cameron gives 30m a tax cut" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #cpc14 pic.twitter.com/hcGFKpO8lH — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) October 1, 2014 But YouGov gives a Lab 2% boost. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead by seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) October 1, 2014 I’d…

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After all the hype from UKIP about the 5pm defection – it’s all about the defector who defected in the morning

After all the hype from UKIP about the 5pm defection – it’s all about the defector who defected in the morning

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Memo to Nigel: I don’t think the journalists who have been dragged to Gloucestershire will be impressed. You should always under promise and over deliver. UKIP's new donor's now giving £1m, not the £100k he originally planned. "Thank you very much," says Nigel Farage. https://t.co/PBw0hMRjZ3 — Sky News (@SkyNews) October 1, 2014 Aaron Banks suggests he's giving UKIP 10 times as much as planned because Tories were rude about him — Ross Hawkins (@rosschawkins) October 1, 2014 The hacks will…

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Cameron’s speech: the reaction

Cameron’s speech: the reaction

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It would appear tax cuts, the NHS, don’t let Labour ruin it and vote Nigel and get Ed is the Tory strategy for 2015.   COMMENT Like it or not, DC hit the spot this year in a way that EM didn't. UKIP is a vote for Labour line loud and clear. — Adam Boulton (@adamboultonSKY) October 1, 2014 Cameron doing well today…touching all the issues….and attempting to set the battle lines…Miliband will have to respond…. — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft)…

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As Dave’s big speech begins – Rumour has it the third defection is expected at 5pm

As Dave’s big speech begins – Rumour has it the third defection is expected at 5pm

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As Cameron's big speech, rumours emerge of a 3rd MP defecting at 5pm http://t.co/KV1CuwLK9T … pic.twitter.com/naCD1zapXY — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 1, 2014 Rumour growing that UKIP have a 3rd Tory MP defecting today at 5pm. Not just the donor. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 1, 2014 TSE

Will UKIP overshadow Cameron’s big day?

Will UKIP overshadow Cameron’s big day?

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Wednesday's i front page – Trust me to protect the NHS, says Cameron #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/nQylBrzFH1 — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) September 30, 2014 As the focus is on a defector, Dave is set to make the NHS the centre piece of the election. Coupled with the seven day a week GP promise announced yesterday, it is clear what the Tories will be focussing upon. I suspect the NHS will form a key part of the election battle. It will be…

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UKIP down 2 in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

UKIP down 2 in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

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The fieldwork was Friday to Sunday inclusive, so some of it was conducted during Mark Reckless’ defection and Brooks Newmark’s resignation. There’ll probably be relief at Tory HQ, given that and the the polling was conducted in the aftermath of the Labour conference that they are up 1% and not down a significant amount. As with most other pollsters, there’s been no bounce for Labour post their conference. As ever, conference polling can be erratic, and we should wait until…

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