Four months before being elected Tory leader Margaret Thatcher was a 50-1 shot

Four months before being elected Tory leader Margaret Thatcher was a 50-1 shot

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Amazing betting odds on the CON leadership in Oct 1974 from the BBC re-run of GE1974 results programme. Maggie 50/1 pic.twitter.com/epdoKJmV5y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014 Did you get on? I certainly didn’t The BBC Parliament Channel has been re-running the October 1974 General Election results programme as part of its intermittent series of playing back old elections. I love them and you learn so much simply from seeing how things were seen then. A common feature of…

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To Clacton and beyond, but just how far is that?

To Clacton and beyond, but just how far is that?

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David Herdson on Thursday’s dramatic elections Revolutions are best viewed through the wide-angled lens of history, not the microscope of journalism.  Even in the most turbulent times, occurrences that would have seemed literally incredible just a few years earlier are taken almost for granted after the conditioning of intervening incremental events. So it is with UKIP’s successes at this week’s by-elections.  Douglas Carswell’s victory was expected by all sides and duly delivered.  His colleague in Heywood and Middleton came very…

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The day after: Betting and other by-election round up

The day after: Betting and other by-election round up

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Some comfort for the Tories. UKIP lost two of the three council elections it was defending last night. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 10, 2014 On the Betfair exchange punters give rate UKIP's chance of winning Rochester & Strood at 75%. CON full postal primary to select candidate — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 10, 2014 William Hill http://t.co/orbZ1dFWfn odds on next UKIP leader 5/2 D CARSWELL 4/1 P O’FLYNN 5/1 D JAMES 6/1 S WOOLFE 7/1 P NUTTALL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 10, 2014…

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Marf on the morning after at Number 10

Marf on the morning after at Number 10

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Want to know where UKIP will flourish? Where Billy Butlin established holiday camps in the 1930s. Skegness was first followed by Clacton. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 10, 2014

By-Election Results: October 9th 2014

By-Election Results: October 9th 2014

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Waterloo on Blackpool (Conservative defence) Result: Conservatives 406 (34%), UKIP 372 (32%), Labour 347 (30%), Liberal Democrats 34 (3%), British National Party 17 (1%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 34 (2%) Bicknacre with East and West Hanningfield on Chelmsford (Conservative defence) Result: Conservatives 649 (56%), UKIP 359 (31%), Labour 80 (7%), Greens 35 (3%), Liberal Democrats 34 (3%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 290 (25%) Southgate on Crawley (UKIP defence from Con defection) Result: Labour 733 (44% +3%),…

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A week a long time in politics. Last Friday CON celebrating 1st YouGov lead for nearly 3 years

A week a long time in politics. Last Friday CON celebrating 1st YouGov lead for nearly 3 years

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Friday's @thetimes #Clacton by-election special edition: The history man: Ukip win gives party first MP pic.twitter.com/tJJNRi8t9V — David Jack (@DJack_Journo) October 10, 2014 Douglas Carswell tells Sky News that "Clacton result shows a profound change in British politics" #skybyelection https://t.co/vOtryZQESt — Sky News (@SkyNews) October 10, 2014 But the real sensation, as Carswell said, was UKIP getting so close in Heywood & Middleton Here's the full #HeywoodAndMiddleton result where Labour hold the seat on a 36% turnout #bbctw pic.twitter.com/KIN27VM1Ym —…

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One thing about tonight’s for sure – my chapter on by-elections in the Politicos GE2015 Guide will look totally out of date

One thing about tonight’s for sure – my chapter on by-elections in the Politicos GE2015 Guide will look totally out of date

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View from the Guardian's executive suite at Clacton count pic.twitter.com/buFwL9D25c — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) October 9, 2014 Just got back from an enjoyable holiday near Malaga to find my copy of the Politicos Guide to GE2015 waiting for me. Like its predecessor on the 2010 election I’ve contributed a chapter on by-elections in this parliament the text of which was finalised before Douglas Carswell made his dramatic switch and resigned forcing today’s by-election. What I wrote at the end of July…

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By-Election Preview : October 9th 2014

By-Election Preview : October 9th 2014

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Waterloo on Blackpool (Conservative defence) Result of council at last election (2011): Labour 27, Conservatives 14, Liberal Democrats 1 (Labour majority of 12) Result of ward at last election (2011) : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 937, 659 Conservatives 793, 728 Liberal Democrats 263 Candidates duly nominated: John Braithwaite (UKIP), Kathy Ellis (Lab), Mike Hodkinson (Lib Dem), Jack Renshaw (BNP), Derek Robertson (Con) Bicknacre with East and West Hanningfield on Chelmsford (Conservative defence) Result of council at last election (2011): Conservatives…

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