Rochester & Strood looks set to be bigger even than Eastleigh

Rochester & Strood looks set to be bigger even than Eastleigh

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Kelly Tolurst 4/6 favourite to win 1st all postal by-election primary @KellyTolhurst one of the two candidates to be CON candidate in R&S – Britain's first all-postal by-election primary pic.twitter.com/DFOCI8GnuX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 14, 2014 Kelly’s opponent Anna Firth at 11/10 @anna_firth seeking the CON nomination in the Britain's first ever all-postal by-election primary. pic.twitter.com/rvPW3FSun9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 14, 2014 The winner of the CON all-postal primary in Rochester will have to beat Mark @MarkReckless pic.twitter.com/hnVfK7c6B6…

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The single issues that look most set to determine GE15 votes: ICM’s new approach to what’s salient

The single issues that look most set to determine GE15 votes: ICM’s new approach to what’s salient

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The gaps between the 2010 LDs and UKIP voters are enormous In its latest phone poll for the Guardian ICM takes a novel new approach to testing the salience of specific issues and the impact on voting. As can be seen in the chart above the sample was asked to state the single most important issue that would influence their vote. For me the big surprise is that immigration is pipped for top place by the NHS and that the…

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UKIP move up in tonight’s phone polls while the Tories slip back

UKIP move up in tonight’s phone polls while the Tories slip back

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The day has seen three new GE15 polls all of them completed after UKIP success in the by-elections on Thursday. Populus online which came out this morning showed no change for the party but the two phone polls, ICM and Ashcroft, reported increases. ICM had Farage’s party moving up 5% to 14% while Ashcroft recorded 19% for the purples – up 2 and equalling the highest ever share that his polling has found. So less than two weeks after the…

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And so to Rochester & Strood which has become a “must win” for both the Tories and UKIP

And so to Rochester & Strood which has become a “must win” for both the Tories and UKIP

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Latest Betfair trade has Ukip's Mark Reckless as a 78% chance to win the Rochester & Strood by-election pic.twitter.com/MN5bWpcTNr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 12, 2014 Will the CON all postal primary get them into the game? Inevitably UKIP go into the upcoming Rochester & Strood by-election with their tails up high. Clacton, and even more so, Heywood have given the party the “big mo” which they hope will carry over to the next contest. Although the only public poll…

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The first general election after the AV referendum looks set to see unprecedented levels of tactical voting

The first general election after the AV referendum looks set to see unprecedented levels of tactical voting

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The detail of possible tactical voting in CON-LD battles from today's YouGov pic.twitter.com/iMgKVhPsdx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 12, 2014 The detail of possible tactical voting in LAB-CON & LAB-LD battles from today's YouGov pic.twitter.com/4DNlTvykCg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 12, 2014 Many electors will vote AGAINST LAB/CON/LD/UKIP rather than FOR Reproduced above is some fascinating data from today’s YouGov/ST poll on questions which try to tease out how people would cast their ballots if their party of choice didn’t…

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If Ed Miliband wasn’t polling so badly then what’ll happen on May 7th would be a lot clearer

If Ed Miliband wasn’t polling so badly then what’ll happen on May 7th would be a lot clearer

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Confused? So is everyone it appears Headline points from @LordAshcroft poll for Sun on Sunday http://t.co/hSHlMNLqaH pic.twitter.com/5GlgwI3ogd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 12, 2014 The question is how much of a liability is the LAB leader Last night more polls were published than on any day since GE10. We had surveys of all sorts from YouGov, ICM, Opinium, Survation and Lord Ashcroft and it is hard to draw any conclusions. In the voting polls LAB was ahead in all but Survation…

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The Saturday night rolling polling blog

The Saturday night rolling polling blog

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Detailed data from Survation for Southern England has UKIP on 37.6% four pts ahead of the Tories — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014 Survation/MoS poll has 30.3% of men backing UKIP compared with 18.9% of women — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014 The big polling question tonight is why there’s such a big difference in the UKIP shares. Opinium 17%, YouGov 16% with Survation on 25%. Chart updated to include Survation with UKIP on record 25% for any…

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