The race becomes a tie – but Labour could snatch it Thanks to Mike for alerting me to the fact that 23.4% of the UKIP support in the survation poll were people who did not vote in the 2010 General Election. History has shown voters who did not vote in the last general election are the less likely to turnout in the next general election. One of the reasons ICM has been consistently the most accurate pollster is one of their…
Dave’s policies on the Human Rights Act and the 40p tax rate enjoy plurality/net support. I’ve said before, polling on conference policies can be a lot like budget polling. Policies can get a lot of support in the immediate aftermath, but sometimes the boost in the VI fades, but the Tories will be delighted to enjoy plurality support for their two major conference policies. We need more polling from other pollsters to see if this Tory lead is being replicated….
Whilst UKIP will be delighted by this, there’s a few things to note Mark Reckless’ share of the vote is down nearly 10% from the general election A lead of 9% compares poorly to the 44% lead UKIP/Douglas Carswell had in the Clacton Survation poll This leads me to conclude that my assumption that Mark Reckless is no Douglas Carswell in terms of popularity in his seat the way Douglas Carswell is regarded in Clacton. I expect the Labour supporters…
It’s still a possibility – by accident or design Lame ducks. Britain’s not supposed to have them given that there are no term limits for ministers and for that matter, no formal terms at all as far as governments are concerned: they just carry on until they resign or are ousted. Even so, final sessions of a parliament has rarely been particularly fruitful times, partly because the government’s main priorities will have already been dealt with but mainly because the…
GE2015 will see the return of big time tactical voting Because so much has been going on politically in the past few days very little attention has been paid to the latest round of marginals polling that was published by Lord Ashcroft last Sunday afternoon. The focus was on Lib Dem seats and the chart above is based on Lord A”s aggregate data from 17 separate polls. We’ve talked so often before about the collapse of the Lib Dem vote…
My latest article Are manufactured public spats in both coalition partners' interest? http://t.co/aLo8D5uXjc pic.twitter.com/WBbsRl9QdC — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) October 3, 2014 Surely the Lib Dems can’t go on like this polling in the single digits? I’ve always been optimistic on the Lib Dems doing well in 2015, and the Ashcroft marginals polling in the past shows them doing better in the seats they hold than the national polling would suggest. My expectation for 2014 was if we started seeing the…
The fundamentals remain: LAB’s LD firewall hasn’t been touched Undoubtedly a CON lead with another pollster, YouGov, is a big moment and given it comes after Cameron’s well received conference speech will give cheer to the blues. This morning’s Sun poll with the Tories 1% ahead means that within the past months Ashcroft, ICM, Ipsos-MORI and now YouGov have all had blue leads at one point or another. There’s little doubt that Cameron’s speech has been well received and that…
Llandaff North on Cardiff (Labour Defence) Result: Labour 898 (50% -2%), Llandaff North Independents 419 (23% -1%), UKIP 204 (11%), Conservatives 136 (8% +5%), Liberal Democrats 134 (7% -9%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 479 (27%) on a swing of 0.5% from Labour to Llandaff North Independents Windermere on Cumbria (Liberal Democrat Defence) Result: Liberal Democrats 1,061 (52% -10%), Conservatives 810 (39% +20%), Independent 123 (6%), Green 61 (3%) Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 251 (12%) on…