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As discussed in Part One, the Greens have gained impressive local council bases the last couple of years and are targetting three new seats at the 2024 election to try and grow their Parliamentary presence. However, while the Greens are clearly ascendant in their new target seats, albeit not to great heights in North Herefordshire, the same is not true in Brighton Pavilion. Losing Lucas Since winning the seat in 2010, Caroline Lucas has built a formidable majority which now…

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It rarely makes headlines outside of The New Statesman, but the Greens have had (by far) their best period ever since 2019. Since that election the Greens have set new records in: By-elections (First ever double-digit vote share, plus two of only four deposits saved in their history); Local elections (Trebling their local council base since 2019, and increasing it almost 10 times from the pre-2019 level); Mayoral Elections (Record vote share in London, and everywhere else where they ran…

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I suspect because Starmer is seen as a winner, most Labour councillors will not kick up too much of a fuss on the one issue they aren’t satisfied on. Proper left wingers want to be in power to deliver change rather than perpetually protesting in opposition, the latter is like a lot like peeing your pants, it’ll give you a warm feeling but puts everyone else off. TSE

While the UK gets itself in a jumble on Palestine or Israel our next door neighbour has no such qualms. Ireland is quite clearly fighting Palestine’s corner. Sinn Fein backing the Palestinians is no surprise, but the main parts of the Irish establishment have fallen into line too. Leo Varadkar has gone off script several times and has been arguing against the mainstream EU position much to the annoyance of Germany. The Irish President Michael D Higgins got into a…

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Sky News are reporting on a YouGov poll they have commissioned Only one in 10 voters who supported the Tories in 2019 have switched to Labour, according to a major new poll for Sky News.   The exclusive YouGov survey of 5,621 voters found 11% of 2019 Tory voters would now vote for Labour, while slightly more – 12% – have switched to Reform UK, a party to the right of the Conservatives. The fact that Labour is attracting fewer former Tory votes…

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The Scottish Election Study use YouGov however due slight methodology variations YouGov advise not to compare them to YouGov’s own polls but rather compare them to previous Scottish Election Study polls. Redfield & Wilton has Labour & The SNP tied but even if Redfield & WIlton is accurate Humza Yousaf’s strategy about using the next Westminster general election to further Scottish independence might be flawed. TSE

Following the Covid-19 inquiry I think Boris Johnson’s reputation has been sufficiently shredded that his career in politics will not reach his previous political apotheoses. TSE

I did wonder if the events in the Middle East might be the blackest of black swans that upends Sir Keir Starmer general election victory. It is clear that the Labour Party is more focussed and sympathetic to the Palestinians than most voters, so Starmer’s actions on recent events could annoy plenty of Labour voters but he’s doing better than Corbyn which represents a real victory for Starmer. TSE