Polling analysis: UKIP’s hurting CON even more in the marginals than it was 2 months ago

Polling analysis: UKIP’s hurting CON even more in the marginals than it was 2 months ago

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Latest churn figures from main parties to Farage’s One of the great things about the Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is the sheer scale of it and the size of the overall samples. He tends to operate with samples of 1,000 meaning that the latest batch involved talking on the phone to a total of 11,002 people which is the equivalent to almost a year’s worth of ICM or Ipsos-MORI polls. The benefit is that the aggregate data from all the…

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The polling’s not all good for UKIP: See this worrying data for Farage’s party from YouGov and Ipsos-MORI

The polling’s not all good for UKIP: See this worrying data for Farage’s party from YouGov and Ipsos-MORI

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YouGov polling for the @TheEconomist on perceptions of UKIP. http://t.co/htbjsweQWI pic.twitter.com/stPsFNlqjj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 17, 2014 Last month Ipsos-MORI had them the most disliked & least liked party Could we be seeing the basis for anti-purple tactical voting? In a week that has been dominated by positive GE15 voting numbers for YouGov there’s some other data from firm for the Economist, see top panel, that might make uncomfortable reading. The way the party is perceived by a representative sample…

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Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview by Harry Hayfield

Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview by Harry Hayfield

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Harper Green on Bolton (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 40, Conservatives 15, Liberal Democrats 3, United Kingdom Independence Party 2 (Labour majority of 20) Result of ward at last election (2013): Labour 744 (52%), Conservative 325 (23%), UKIP 252 (18%), Greens 60 (4%), Liberal Democrats 53 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Jeff Armstrong (UKIP), Rebekah Fairhurst (Lib Dem), Susan Haworth (Lab), Joseph Holt (Ind), James Tomkinson (Green), Robert Tyler (Con) If a week is a long…

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Rochester punters unmoved by the CON primary and Cameron visit: UKIP still a 77.5% chance

Rochester punters unmoved by the CON primary and Cameron visit: UKIP still a 77.5% chance

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Raised key local issues of support for small business & job creation with @DavidCameron in #RochesterAndStrood today pic.twitter.com/KX7HcKnExy — Kelly Tolhurst (@KellyTolhurst) October 16, 2014 Is Reckless right to complain about the CON primary? We are just five weeks away from the Rochester & Strood by-election and today David Cameron visited the area to meet local businesses as well as the two women competing to be the CON candidate. Last night the Tories staged hustings and voting papers have now…

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The latest round of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals’ polling finds a 5% CON to LAB swing – slightly more than the 3-4% we’ve been seeing in recent national polls

The latest round of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals’ polling finds a 5% CON to LAB swing – slightly more than the 3-4% we’ve been seeing in recent national polls

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@LordAshcroft latest batch of marginal polling finds 5% swing in CON held seats with majoritiies 3% – 4.8% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2014 Seat-by-seat results in my latest poll – swings range from 2% (Pudsey, Gloucester) to 8% (Brentford & Isleworth): pic.twitter.com/xEJCDlZdKj — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) October 16, 2014 I love this Tweet from Lord A No doubt Conservative Party internal polling will show a Conservative overall majority #comfortpolling — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) October 16, 2014 Aggregate shares…

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For the second consecutive day YouGov’s UKIP share moves to a record high

For the second consecutive day YouGov’s UKIP share moves to a record high

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Today's YouGov sees UKIP at highest level recorded by firm CON 31 LAB 33 LD 7 UKIP 19 GRN 5 pic.twitter.com/vSbRZITf97 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2014 Is this going to fade or are we seeing a permanent change? The record polling shares continue for UKIP with the latest YouGov daily poll moving up from yesterday’s 18% to 19% this morning. The latest figures have CON on 31% and LAB on 33% a joint main two party aggregate of just 64% which is a…

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Ipsos-Mori becomes the third pollster in less than a week to show a record high for UKIP

Ipsos-Mori becomes the third pollster in less than a week to show a record high for UKIP

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Following on from Survation and YouGov recording their highest ever shares for UKIP, Ipsos-Mori joins the party, and has their highest ever share for UKIP. Labour will be relieved to be back in the lead, but as with other pollsters, we’re seeing some historically low shares for the Con and Lab combined. Latest @IpsosMORI poll has Labour regaining the lead Con 30 (-4) Lab 33 (nc) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 16 (+1) Greens 5 (-1) pic.twitter.com/qljDjWCiwa — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB)…

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