— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 17, 2014
Last month Ipsos-MORI had them the most disliked & least liked party
Could we be seeing the basis for anti-purple tactical voting?
In a week that has been dominated by positive GE15 voting numbers for YouGov there’s some other data from firm for the Economist, see top panel, that might make uncomfortable reading. The way the party is perceived by a representative sample of voters.
Those numbers are not good for the party and raise the prospect, I’d suggest, of anti-UKIP tactical voting with people not supporting their allegiance but the party most able to beat Farage’s party. It was suggested that this might have happened in the Newark by-election in June.
Several people who were “on the ground” during that by-election have told me how they’d come across quite a level a “cross-over” voting for this purpose with ex-LD and even ex-LAB voters shifting to CON for the election to stop UKIP. We have seen this in the past where the BNP have been strong in a seat.
The conditions for this, I’d suggest, are where it looks likely that the purples might be in with a shout and where highly intensive ground campaigning is taking place increasing overall awareness of the election – Rochester on November 20th perhaps?
Much publicised surges can have their negative side.