Local By-Election Preview: November 6th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: November 6th 2014

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Mevagissey on Cornwall (Lab Defence) Result of council at last election (2013): Independents 37, Liberal Democrats 36, Conservatives 31, Labour 8, UKIP 6, Mebyon Kernow 4, Green 1 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 25) Result of ward at last election (2013): Labour 391 (30%), UKIP 363 (28%), Conservative 316 (24%), Liberal Democrats 184 (14%), Green 62 (7%) Candidates duly nominated: Christopher Maynard (Lib Dem), Katherine Moseley (Green), James Mustoe (Con), Charmain Nicholas (Lab), Michael Williams (UKIP) This is the…

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Big news from Westminster is that there are LAB calls for Ed Miliband to step down

Big news from Westminster is that there are LAB calls for Ed Miliband to step down

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BBC News says some LAB MPs have told chair of parliamentary party that EdM should stand down http://t.co/2SRcUMXoty pic.twitter.com/7be3uKBRWd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2014 Is it worth a 6/1 bet? William Hill make it a 6/1 shot that Ed Miliband will go before GE15 http://t.co/orbZ1dFWfn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2014 Generally leaders hold on even in the most difficult of circumstances. With Labour it is even more complicated because the rules for getting rid of an incumbent make…

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LAB is still ahead in England which the Tories won at GE10 with a margin of 11.4 percent

LAB is still ahead in England which the Tories won at GE10 with a margin of 11.4 percent

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Could GE15 in England be like GE05 which the Tories won on votes but were 92 seats behind on seats CON 35.7% England vote: 194 MPS LAB 35.5% England vote: 286 MPs GE2005 from Commons Research paper. LAB loses to CON on votes in England but comes out with 92.more MPs pic.twitter.com/59DFyk51OU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2014 A stark reminder of the impact of first past the post Labour might have collapsed in Scotland but the gainers are…

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October’s PB Poll Average: UKIP hit record high, Lab hit record low, Tories and LD trundle along the bottom

October’s PB Poll Average: UKIP hit record high, Lab hit record low, Tories and LD trundle along the bottom

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October was a month best forgotten by Ed Miliband, though reference to his memory may not aid that process. Apart from the mess of a conference speech (and indeed, the conference generally, which was Labour’s last big set-piece before they launch their manifesto next year), it contained the near-miss at Heywood & Middleton and ended with his personal ratings dropping to levels that are so subterranean they could be mined for Helium-3. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the net result of all that…

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New Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds smaller CON to LAB swings and the Tories hanging on to 3 seats

New Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds smaller CON to LAB swings and the Tories hanging on to 3 seats

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Seat-by-seat voting intention in my latest marginals poll: pic.twitter.com/Vyz4UtINvP — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) November 5, 2014 @LordAshcroft marginals: LAB would GAIN Bury N Cannock C Chester Croydon C Erewash Keighley Northampton N Keighley Wirral W Worcester — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014 @LordAshcroft marginals: CON would hold Blackpool N Kingswood Loughborough — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014 @LordAshcroft marginals finds UKIP at 20% in key CON-LAB battles CON 33 LAB 36 LD 6 UKIP 20 GRN 4 This is CON-LAB swing of 4.5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014

The woman in this great ad wins the Senator race in Iowa to help the GOP take control of the Senate

The woman in this great ad wins the Senator race in Iowa to help the GOP take control of the Senate

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A future White House contender? NYT graphic of the US exit polls showing the demographic divide. http://t.co/U78l0QsoWF pic.twitter.com/tirP0tamjX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014 The big UK political betting news will be the release by Lord Ashcroft later this morning of his latest round of single seat polling. He’s gone for seats with bigger majorities than his earlier polling as well as a look at Scotland. That’s due out at 11am and I will be covering on Twitter as well…

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If the Betfair exchange is anything to go by it will be a good night for the Republicans in the MidTerms

If the Betfair exchange is anything to go by it will be a good night for the Republicans in the MidTerms

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Betfair exchange punters rate the the Republicans chances of winning Senate in today's midterms at 85% pic.twitter.com/H2Qk4snAPG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2014 The contests don’t appear to have grabbed public attention Gallup polling suggests there's much less interest in today's midterm elections than in previous years pic.twitter.com/wbF9W83jmB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2014 In the US its the midterms. This map shows when polls close across the country. pic.twitter.com/FJf4Pepg0M — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2014