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Canvey Island East on Castle Point (Canvey Island Independent Defence) Result: Independent 389 (39% +23%), Canvey Island Independent 323 (32% -16%), Conservative 208 (21% -2%), Labour 76 (8% -5%) Independent GAIN from Canvey Island Independent with a majority of 66 (7%) on a swing of 20% from Canvey Island Independent to Independent Sandsfield East on Neath and Port Talbot (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 641 (61% +8%), UKIP 361 (34%), Conservative 47 (4%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 280 (27%)…

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The local NHS rather than immigration the top issue for Rochester voters ahead of by-election. See Survation chart pic.twitter.com/lwBuP0ntNe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2014 Some good news for UKIP after its PCC by-election flop There’s a new voting intention poll by Survation for the Unite union of Rochester & Strood. The latest shares (with change in brackets since firm’s last poll on 5 October for Mail on Sunday): CON 33% (+2), LAB 16% (-9), LD 1% (-2), UKIP…

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This will be the third public poll since the by election was called and the first two have had UKIP in the lead by reasonable margins. Watch this space

LAB could be down to just 4 seats @IpsosMORI chart showing the detail of their sensational Scottish poll. pic.twitter.com/3w4Tpu9Pj3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2014 Electoral Calculus has LAB down to just 4 Scots MPs if it votes at GE15 as in today's Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll. pic.twitter.com/FSkxbrUSRJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2014 At the Holyrood election in May 2011 @IpsosMORI was the most accurate pollster. All came top = on the IndyRef — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October…

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