New Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds smaller CON to LAB swings and the Tories hanging on to 3 seats

New Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds smaller CON to LAB swings and the Tories hanging on to 3 seats

Comments 0 Comment

Seat-by-seat voting intention in my latest marginals poll: pic.twitter.com/Vyz4UtINvP — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) November 5, 2014 @LordAshcroft marginals: LAB would GAIN Bury N Cannock C Chester Croydon C Erewash Keighley Northampton N Keighley Wirral W Worcester — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014 @LordAshcroft marginals: CON would hold Blackpool N Kingswood Loughborough — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014 @LordAshcroft marginals finds UKIP at 20% in key CON-LAB battles CON 33 LAB 36 LD 6 UKIP 20 GRN 4 This is CON-LAB swing of 4.5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014

The woman in this great ad wins the Senator race in Iowa to help the GOP take control of the Senate

The woman in this great ad wins the Senator race in Iowa to help the GOP take control of the Senate

Comments 0 Comment

A future White House contender? NYT graphic of the US exit polls showing the demographic divide. http://t.co/U78l0QsoWF pic.twitter.com/tirP0tamjX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2014 The big UK political betting news will be the release by Lord Ashcroft later this morning of his latest round of single seat polling. He’s gone for seats with bigger majorities than his earlier polling as well as a look at Scotland. That’s due out at 11am and I will be covering on Twitter as well…

Read More Read More

If the Betfair exchange is anything to go by it will be a good night for the Republicans in the MidTerms

If the Betfair exchange is anything to go by it will be a good night for the Republicans in the MidTerms

Comments 0 Comment

Betfair exchange punters rate the the Republicans chances of winning Senate in today's midterms at 85% pic.twitter.com/H2Qk4snAPG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2014 The contests don’t appear to have grabbed public attention Gallup polling suggests there's much less interest in today's midterm elections than in previous years pic.twitter.com/wbF9W83jmB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2014 In the US its the midterms. This map shows when polls close across the country. pic.twitter.com/FJf4Pepg0M — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2014

Hung parliament now the overwhelming GE15 favourite on the Betfair exchange

Hung parliament now the overwhelming GE15 favourite on the Betfair exchange

Comments 0 Comment

With both LAB & CON continuing to be weak a majority seems remote On one level the rise of UKIP and to a lesser extent the Greens changes very little when trying to work out the coming election. The main fights are in LAB-CON battlegrounds where, conventionally, all that matters is the gap between the two main parties. You just leave aside others and focus on the blue and red shares. If CON has margin similar or larger than the…

Read More Read More

The big question is what’s happening in Britain’s Ohio, Florida and Virginia

The big question is what’s happening in Britain’s Ohio, Florida and Virginia

Comments 0 Comment

Applying the US model to GE2015 Midterm day in the US is a good reminder of how different the general election narrative works out in the US compared with the UK. For there, as we all followed closely just two years ago, everything is focused on the so called swing States – the ones that will decide the election. The national polling shares were almost irrelevant – it was the data coming from the select group that was the main…

Read More Read More

CON + LAB slump to record aggregate low in tonight’s Lord Ashcroft weekly phone poll

CON + LAB slump to record aggregate low in tonight’s Lord Ashcroft weekly phone poll

Comments 0 Comment

The trend in the weekly @LordAshcroft phone polls. Not good for LAB pic.twitter.com/Qat6ZaWaDE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2014 This evening's CON 30% share & LAB 29% are lower than Major did for Tories in 1997 & Brown for LAB at GE2010 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2014 The scale of the UKIP/GRN/SNP surges is breathtaking That LAB falls to a record low of 29% is remarkable in itself but what is startling is that in the same…

Read More Read More

If there’s no referendum on the Osborne plan for an elected mayor for Greater Manchester it could set difficult precedents

If there’s no referendum on the Osborne plan for an elected mayor for Greater Manchester it could set difficult precedents

Comments 0 Comment

Osborne setting bad precedent ignoring the Manchester Mayoral Referendum of May 2112. New plan needs new vote. pic.twitter.com/l2xfUsq9EC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2014 Should previous referenda be ignored? The big announcement from George Osborne today has been that Greater Manchester is to have an elected mayor who’ll preside over regional issues. This has been agreed with leaders of 10 councils in the region. The plan is for the new mayor to oversee policies like transport, social care and…

Read More Read More

Labour’s collapse in the polls is NOT because of a fall-off in Lib Dem switching

Labour’s collapse in the polls is NOT because of a fall-off in Lib Dem switching

Comments 0 Comment

The above monthly averages are based on analysis of data from every single Populus online poll since the firm started its twice weekly series in July 2013 and shows the proportion, before the don’t knows are netted off, of 2010 LDs now saying they will vote Labour. Because of the way Populus presents its data this is a much easier number gathering exercise than it would be with YouGov which only shows the netted off numbers in its datasets. As…

Read More Read More