Both Tories and UKIP go for the tactical vote in their final push in Rochester

Both Tories and UKIP go for the tactical vote in their final push in Rochester

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conservative @KellyTolhurst appeals to greens/lab/libs: "if you don't want a UKIP MP on Friday, I hope you can support me" #tactical #RSVote — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) November 18, 2014 Will by election voters want to stop UKIP or give Cameron a bloody nose? After a campaign that seems to have been going on forever we are now into the final day of the Rochester and Strood by-election effort. The polls and PBers in the prediction competition all go for UKIP…

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Opinium poll that “slipped out” has CON ahead with the LDs down on 5%

Opinium poll that “slipped out” has CON ahead with the LDs down on 5%

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New Opinium poll has CON in lead with the LDs down 4 to 5% Con 34 (+5), Lab 33 (+1) LD 5 (-4) UKIP 18 (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2014 The above are voting intention details from the Opinium poll that featured on the previous thread. It is not part of the the Observer series and wasn’t intended for publication. Whatever at this stage so close to the election and only a couple of days away from…

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Survation finds dramatic LAB collapse in Scotland but not on the scale of Ipsos-MORI in October

Survation finds dramatic LAB collapse in Scotland but not on the scale of Ipsos-MORI in October

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What we need now are Scottish constituency polls The second part of the Daily Record Survation poll of Scottish voters was published overnight and finds a big increase in SNP support since the IndyRef with an even bigger drop in the Labour share. It doesn’t really need to be said that the prospect of losing a significant part of its current base of 41 seats North of the border is going to make Labour’s challenge at the General Election that…

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For the first time in a month the Ashcroft National phone poll has LAB in the lead

For the first time in a month the Ashcroft National phone poll has LAB in the lead

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Ashcroft becomes the 4th pollster in a row to have LAB ahead All the movements are very small and well within the margin of error but it will come as a relief in Miliband towers that the national VI polls seem to be moving back to LAB. The shares vary considerably across the firms no more so than today. Just look at the chart to see the very real differences between Ashcroft and Populus – the latter having a CON+LAB…

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New Survation Scottish poll finds No would have a 6% lead if there was another IndyRef

New Survation Scottish poll finds No would have a 6% lead if there was another IndyRef

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Asked how they'd vote in a new IndyRef 53% of Scots sampled in Survation Record poll said NO – 47%YES — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2014 Survation’s NO lead could be good news for LAB Polls focused solely on Scotland have been very rare since the country voted to remain in the UK on September 18t. So a new one is special particularly because of the apparent impact that the referendum has had on opinion north of the border….

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