New Opinium poll has CON in lead with the LDs down 4 to 5% Con 34 (+5), Lab 33 (+1) LD 5 (-4) UKIP 18 (-1)
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2014
The above are voting intention details from the Opinium poll that featured on the previous thread. It is not part of the the Observer series and wasn’t intended for publication.
Whatever at this stage so close to the election and only a couple of days away from a crucial by-election the news that the Tories have made such an improvement and that the LDs have dropped to 5% is striking.
The CON lead news follows the latest YouGov out this morning that also had the Tories ahead albeit by just 1%.
A factor with Opinium is that it is the only online firm that doesn’t have any political weighting – either by party ID or past vote and is thus liable to much bigger fluctuations.
The big picture at the moment is that the two main parties are very close – LAB is clearly suffering from the seepage of support in Scotland.