Marf on Rochester and Harry Hayfield’s local and Westminster by-election preview

Marf on Rochester and Harry Hayfield’s local and Westminster by-election preview

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Bramhall South & Woodford on Stockport (Con Defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Liberal Democrats 28, Labour 22, Conservatives 10, Independents 3 (No Overall Control, Liberal Democrats short by 4) Result of ward at last election (2014): Conservatives 1,862 (45%), Liberal Democrats 1,373 (33%), UKIP 538 (13%), Labour 369 (9%) Candidates duly nominated: David McDonough (Green), John McGahan (Con), Jeremy Meal (Lib Dem), Kathryn Priestley (Lab) Twenty years may seem like a lifetime in local politics and yet…

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Anybody got any by-election news from Rochester and Strood?

Anybody got any by-election news from Rochester and Strood?

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Mark Reckless with his “wonderful wife” … voting earlier with my wonderful wife. Today is day for people of Rochester and Strood who are my boss pic.twitter.com/OThUwF0po7 — Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) November 20, 2014 Kelly Tolhurst looking a bit strained Grabbed a quick coffee from Boomers in Chatham Dockside before heading out again for #VoteKelly TODAY campaigning pic.twitter.com/c5odwmMERc — Kelly Tolhurst (@KellyTolhurst) November 20, 2014 It would be great to hear from you on the thread below. What’s turnout like?…

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Under single constituency first past the post system national aggregate vote totals don’t mean that much

Under single constituency first past the post system national aggregate vote totals don’t mean that much

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Why the legitimacy of what could appear a perverse general election outcome cannot be questioned There’s lots of talk at the moment about the electoral “system being bust” and “no longer fit for purpose”. What is being pointed to are possible disparities between national aggregate vote shares and the total of MPs each party gets. Clearly in what is now a four party structure it is very likely that many seats will be won with the victor securing fewer than…

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New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S where it’s defending a majority of just 310

New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S where it’s defending a majority of just 310

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New Survation/Unite poll in Stockton S has CON MP James Wharton holding on by 2% to one of the most marginal seats in the country — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 The split Survation/Unite Stockton S poll CON 39% (0), LAB 37% (-1), LD 3% (-12), UKIP 18% (+15) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 Survation Unite Stockton S poll NOT past voted weighted. 48. 2% of sample were 2010 CON voters when actual figure was 38.9% —…

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Rochester betting: Although UKIP looks a near certainty there are still some interesting markets

Rochester betting: Although UKIP looks a near certainty there are still some interesting markets

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Ladbrokes betting http://t.co/ZlibygoyoN Rochester turnout. 8/11 below 50%. Evens 50%+ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 William Hill betting http://t.co/orbZ1ewJDz LDs 1/33 to lose deposit in Rochester. Seems a certainty even though price very tight. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR have interesting spread market on UKIP Rochester share. Sell 43% BUY 44.5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 I like the SPIN spread market. If you think UKIP will secure more than 44.5%…

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Both Tories and UKIP go for the tactical vote in their final push in Rochester

Both Tories and UKIP go for the tactical vote in their final push in Rochester

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conservative @KellyTolhurst appeals to greens/lab/libs: "if you don't want a UKIP MP on Friday, I hope you can support me" #tactical #RSVote — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) November 18, 2014 Will by election voters want to stop UKIP or give Cameron a bloody nose? After a campaign that seems to have been going on forever we are now into the final day of the Rochester and Strood by-election effort. The polls and PBers in the prediction competition all go for UKIP…

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Opinium poll that “slipped out” has CON ahead with the LDs down on 5%

Opinium poll that “slipped out” has CON ahead with the LDs down on 5%

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New Opinium poll has CON in lead with the LDs down 4 to 5% Con 34 (+5), Lab 33 (+1) LD 5 (-4) UKIP 18 (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2014 The above are voting intention details from the Opinium poll that featured on the previous thread. It is not part of the the Observer series and wasn’t intended for publication. Whatever at this stage so close to the election and only a couple of days away from…

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