New Survation Scottish poll finds No would have a 6% lead if there was another IndyRef
Asked how they'd vote in a new IndyRef 53% of Scots sampled in Survation Record poll said NO – 47%YES
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2014
Survation’s NO lead could be good news for LAB
Polls focused solely on Scotland have been very rare since the country voted to remain in the UK on September 18t. So a new one is special particularly because of the apparent impact that the referendum has had on opinion north of the border.
Thankfully the Daily Record has commissioned the joint top most accurate IndyRef pollster, Survation, to carry out regular surveys the first one of which appears in the paper this morning.
The data appears to be being released in two parts the first of which relates to views now about the IndyRef and how people would vote if given another opportunity. The result is in the Tweet above – after excluding don’t knows the split was 53-47 to NO which was exactly the same as Survation’s final poll on September 17th. The view of independence appears not to have changed.
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This contrasts sharply with the Ipsos-MORI finding three weeks ago that YES has more support than NO. Has there been a real change or is it just different polling approaches?
We don’t know but it was that Ipsos-MORI poll that alerted us to a massive surge in SNP support.
Those sampled by Survation were asked when if ever there should be another IndyRef. This was the outcome.
From Survation D Record poll of Scots on when, in if ever, new IndyRef should take place pic.twitter.com/a4p1OpuNR7
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2014
So getting on for three in ten of Scots don’t want another vote ever which is twice as many who want another referendum immediately.
Hopefully we’ll see the latest Scottish GE2015 voting intention data later on this evening if indeed that question was asked. A huge issue is whether it will show the splits that Ipsos-MORI recorded three weeks ago suggesting that LAB could lose to the SNP almost all the 41 Scottish seats it currently holds.
The impact of that polling was to throw into doubt Labour’s ability to secure an overall majority on May 7th.