Local By-Election Preview : December 11th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : December 11th 2014

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South Kintyre on Argyll and Bute (SNP defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 15, Scottish National Party 13, Conservatives 4, Liberal Democrats 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,133 (46%) Scottish National Party 203, 415 (25%) Independents 63, 138, 167 (15%) Liberal Democrats 351 (14%) Candidates duly nominated: John ARMOUR (SNP), Charlotte HANBURY (Con), Michael KELLY (Lab), Joyce OXBORROW (Lib Dem) A lot…

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SportingIndex cuts the UKIP spread again in effort to entice elusive purple buyers

SportingIndex cuts the UKIP spread again in effort to entice elusive purple buyers

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CON seats up UKIP seat down in today's Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR Commons seats spread prices pic.twitter.com/LL0mEvf6fQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 11, 2014 Meanwhile the CON spread gets even closer to LAB I’m just on the train back from London after having a fascinating chat with the guy who runs the political spread markets at Sporting Index. This is the form of betting that I like the most because it is all about numbers and the more you are right the…

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How the whole political scene is changing – CON+LAB heading for record low

How the whole political scene is changing – CON+LAB heading for record low

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Chart from Ipsos-MORI showing how combined CON+LAB vote heading for record low pic.twitter.com/VsDS4VO3Tn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 11, 2014 It’s hard to work out the long term consequences The overriding theme of this week’s British Election Study conference was that things are changing quite dramatically and we really don’t know where this will end. Thus the certainty that existed about what will happen in Scotland in May has fallen apart in the past few weeks putting into serious doubt…

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Marf on the UKIP Basildon selection

Marf on the UKIP Basildon selection

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Ladbrokes betting http://t.co/ZlibygoyoN South Basildon where Mr. Hamilton is seeking to return to the Commons pic.twitter.com/hz5vJKHY6m — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2014

Latest polling from Thanet South has Farage trailing the Tories by 5% – yet in the betting he’s a 62% chance

Latest polling from Thanet South has Farage trailing the Tories by 5% – yet in the betting he’s a 62% chance

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A case methinks of hearts over heads As a general rule political betting prices and polling tend to run in parallel particularly in the constituencies. So when earlier this month Lord Ashcroft published his latest round there was a rush of activity when apparently obvious bargain appeared. One such one was Nigel Farage’s Thanet South where following the numbers being available the UKIP price of 2/5 eased to 5/6. An earlier Ashcroft poll had had Farage with a 3% lead….

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“The next CON leader will not be a white man” – Tory insider

“The next CON leader will not be a white man” – Tory insider

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Theresa May up 4% in ConHome party members’ next leader survey The comment in the heading for this post was made to me at a recent social event by someone I regard as a leading Tory insider. It certainly has a ring of truth about it given that the two contenders currently being talked about are Theresa May and Sajid Javid, the culture Secretary. This conversation took place before the latest ConHome findings from its regular party member surveys. Theresa…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you like political betting, welcome to PB, Nobody Does It Better than PB. If you’ve always been a lurker, why not delurk tonight, no one will think You’re So Vain for delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Why 2015 is about marginal seats…

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