First poll of the weekend from Opinium sees LAB lead move to 7%

First poll of the weekend from Opinium sees LAB lead move to 7%

The trend in the fortnightly Opinium polls for the Observer pic.twitter.com/CTkxBZbi4f — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 20, 2014 LAB lead now 7% with Opinium LAB takes 7% lead in latet Opinium poll for Observer LAB 36+2 CON 29= UKIP 16-3 LD 6= GRN 5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 20, 2014 Clegg and Miliband trail badly in latest Opinium approval rating for Observer pic.twitter.com/5LPz0hqwCJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 20, 2014 YouGov has LAB 2% ahead with, as per usual, CON in the 30s LAB 2%…

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It could be that telling the pollster that you’ll vote GREEN is a polite way of saying don’t know

It could be that telling the pollster that you’ll vote GREEN is a polite way of saying don’t know

Look at the very high proportion of non-voters With Green growth being the polling story of the week I thought the time was right to look at where expressions of support for the party are coming from. The chart above shows the breakdown from the last batch of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals polling where there’s a big enough sample to look at subsets. For me the striking feature is the large number who did not vote for any of the main…

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Local By-Election Results : December 18th 2014

Local By-Election Results : December 18th 2014

St. James on Kingston upon Thames (Con defence) Result: Conservative 1,123 (43%), Liberal Democrat 865 (33%), Labour 355 (14%), UKIP 206 (8%), Green 71 (3%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 258 (10%) Ollerton on Nottinghamshire (Lab defence) Result: Labour 1,171 (56% -2%), Conservative 533 (26% +4%), UKIP 347 (17% -3%), Liberal Democrat 24 (1%, no candidate last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 638 (31%) on a swing of 3% from Labour to Conservative

New polling suggests that voters are becoming more comfortable with multi party government

New polling suggests that voters are becoming more comfortable with multi party government

Warnings about the dangers of hung parliaments might have less resonance One of the reasons why the LDs went into coalition in 2010 because they wanted to show that multi-party governments were possible. This followed an intensive end to the GE10 campaign when much of the Tory focus was designed increase worries and about what having an inconclusive outcome might mean. Well four and a half years in the coalition has survived and there appears to be not too much…

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After the most intensive polling week of the year the one thing that we haven’t got is clarity

After the most intensive polling week of the year the one thing that we haven’t got is clarity

pic.twitter.com/WJ3lPQIUPB — PolPics (@PolPics) December 14, 2014 Following poor results for LAB from Ipsos-MORI & Lord Ashcroft YouGov ends the week with the party 5% ahead LAB lead moves to 5% in today's YouGov poll for the Sun LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 16%, GRNS 8%, LD 6%2 Best for EdM's party for months — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2014 Four and a half months from the big day The week before Christmas is always an intensive one for…

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Local By-Election Preview : December 18th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : December 18th 2014

St. James on Kingston upon Thames (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Conservatives 28, Liberal Democrats 18, Labour 2 (Conservative majority of 8) Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,250, 1,188, 1,082 Liberal Democrats 729, 719, 696 Labour 598, 494, 485 United Kingdom Independence Party 386, 361 Green 212 British National Party 100 Trade Unionist and Socialist 34 Candidates duly nominated: Jack CHEETHAM (Con), Stephen DUNKLING (Lab), Alex NELSON (Green), Ben…

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Farage joins the minus 20 leader dissatisfaction club

Farage joins the minus 20 leader dissatisfaction club

Worrying trend here for Mr. Farage from @IpsosMORI pic.twitter.com/H2ZErRViIK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2014 All party leaders with net negatives (Clegg & Ed the worst) in latest @IpsosMORI satisfaction ratings pic.twitter.com/R3oF6QobZP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2014

Ipsos Mori sees the Tories retain their 3% lead

Ipsos Mori sees the Tories retain their 3% lead

This month’s @IpsosMORI VI figures pic.twitter.com/0PGkWaGDGW — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) December 18, 2014 Whilst the headline figures appear to be the same as last month for the Tories and Labour, what will delight the Tories is prior to the certainty to vote filter being applied, last month the Tories and Labour were tied, this month, the Tories lead by 4% . Before the Tories get too excited, this poll sees them polling just over their 1997 nadir, and given…

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