The Greens move up 4% in the ICM/Guardian phone poll while LAB has a 3% lead

The Greens move up 4% in the ICM/Guardian phone poll while LAB has a 3% lead

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Greens jump 4 to 9% in latest ICM monthly phone poll. LAB 3 ahead. http://t.co/KlZttaT4N2 pic.twitter.com/qimcgSjTOv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2015 After yesterday’s poll from Lord Ashcroft showing the Greens on 11 percent there’s news this afternoon that ICM, the Guardian’s pollster, has the party on 9 percent – an increase of four points on last month. It really does appear that the row over the TV debates and general dissatisfaction with all of the main parties is…

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So far at least the post-IndyRef SNP surge has barely been seen in Scottish local by-elections

So far at least the post-IndyRef SNP surge has barely been seen in Scottish local by-elections

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SNP poll surge not being seen in post IndyRef Scottish local by-elections. Chart from Rob Hayward – election analyst pic.twitter.com/H6u35Btkfi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2015 Just compare that with the UKIP experience in England Yesterday I attended the annual media briefing by the respected elections analyst and former Conservative MP Robert Hayward. It was a packed and thought provoking session which will be reflected in the media in the coming weeks. There are a number of slides that…

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On a day when a poll had the CON+LAB aggregate at its lowest level since 1981 – Marf gives her take

On a day when a poll had the CON+LAB aggregate at its lowest level since 1981 – Marf gives her take

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The latest Ashcroft national poll was a shocker – not just for the 11% GRN share but for the 57% aggregate total for CON and LAB – the lowest in any poll since 1981. Yet this comes on the same day that Populus online reported a CON+LAB aggregate of 71%. I can’t explain it – but Marf gives her view. Mike Smithson For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble Follow @MSmithsonPB

Tories slump 5 while Greens jump to 11 in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll

Tories slump 5 while Greens jump to 11 in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll

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Tories slump 5 while Greens jump to 11 in this week's Ashcroft poll pic.twitter.com/1tZD76oWPp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2015 Greens hit their highest poll share ever in latest Ashcroft National Poll After last week’s poll which had the Tories 6% today’s Ashcroft National Poll is even more striking – Greens at 11% CON 29-5 LAB 28= LD 9+1 UKIP 15-1 GRN 11+3

Another Scottish poll gives a little bit of cheer to LAB but not that much

Another Scottish poll gives a little bit of cheer to LAB but not that much

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Survation for the Daily Record SNP 46%-2 LAB 26%+2 CON 14%-2 LD 7%+2 UKIP 4%= On what is set to be a very big polling day the first news we have is of a Survation poll in Scotland for the Daily Record. The numbers are above and show that the SNP still has a very big lead over Labour which would cause Miliband’s party to lose a massive number of seats. Scotland is so important to this election because of…

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Bet on the coalition of your choice with your money back if it’s a minority government

Bet on the coalition of your choice with your money back if it’s a minority government

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Nice feature on Betfair Sportsbook coalition bet is your money back it it's a minority government pic.twitter.com/12lT5Q1Uvv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2015 Interesting offer from Betfair Sportsbook Betfair Sportsbook, the traditional bookmaker wing of the betting exchange, looks as though it is getting serious about the coming general election and has been putting some interesting markets up. One which several spotted was 4/9 on Nick Clegg retaining Sheffield Hallam which was far better than what was offered elsewhere….

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With the TV debates making the news Andy Cooke’s counter-factuals make a good read

With the TV debates making the news Andy Cooke’s counter-factuals make a good read

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Fun reads for a long plane or train journey Andy Cooke, a longstanding PBer and contributor has written two Kindle counter factuals starting starting with the premise of what would have happened if UKIP had been part of the leaders’ debates at GE2010. The first “The Fourth Lectern: What if UKIP entered the 2010 General Election Debates?” poses the question of if it had happened earlier, in the dying days of a Labour Government? What if four-party politics had taken…

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First Scottish GE2015 poll of the year finds LAB closing the gap behind the SNP to just 10%

First Scottish GE2015 poll of the year finds LAB closing the gap behind the SNP to just 10%

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1st Scottish GE2015 poll of year, Panelbase for S Times, has LAB closing the gap behind SNP to just 10%. Wiki list pic.twitter.com/FhU5kxj4Oa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2015 The worst poll for the SNP for more than 3 months This morning we have what is undoubtedly the most important poll so far of this general election year – a new survey by Panelbase of Scottish voting intentions which has the Scottish LAB party in its best position since…

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