What’s dangerous for Farage about this UKIP defection is that it’ll raise questions again about his leadership style

What’s dangerous for Farage about this UKIP defection is that it’ll raise questions again about his leadership style

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The S Telegraph story on defection of UKIP MEP Amjad Bashir to CON http://t.co/LZEqNbimos pic.twitter.com/zk7B8nq5BC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2015 Website tells you how many #UKIP politicians have been suspended (32) and how long since most recent (14 mins) http://t.co/07pLgSluj7 — Pete Kennedy (@PeteKennedyGP) January 24, 2015 The MEP is one of quite a few who’ve moved on What makes this particularly striking is the timing so close to the general election, and the fact that Mr. Bashir…

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Well done to ICM and Ipsos-MORI for now providing England only numbers

Well done to ICM and Ipsos-MORI for now providing England only numbers

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Wikipedia has new polling table – ENGLAND ONLY – where CON led by 11.5 at GE10. 3 pollsters now providing this data pic.twitter.com/8U68NH31jx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2015 As can be seen the picture is very mixed In December I met some pollsters and some of their clients at the BES launch event and suggested that what would be enormously helpful was a breakdown of the England only figures. Whether it was my suggestion or not I don’t…

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The 7-7-2 debate format is just inviting a court challenge

The 7-7-2 debate format is just inviting a court challenge

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The “worm” from the 2nd 2010 debate Maybe judges killing them off is what the broadcasters really want It was so easy last time: three major GB parties and no other vaguely serious contender. With the SNP messing up their legal challenge, the invites to send more-or-less wrote themselves. As is already clear from the saga so far, it’s a very different situation this year. What’s striking to me about the latest proposals is not so much the unwieldy scale…

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The debates: The broadcaster up the ante and threaten to empty chair Cameron

The debates: The broadcaster up the ante and threaten to empty chair Cameron

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The broadcaster have just issued a joint statement on the debates. The sting is in the tail. “The proposed dates for the debates are 2, 16 and 30 April. The order of the debates is to be discussed with the parties. “The party leaders will be formally invited to take part in these debates. In the event that any of the invited party leaders decline to participate, debates will take place with the party leaders who accept the invitation.” The…

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Latest polls bring just a little bit of relief for LAB but it’s going to be a struggle to win most seats

Latest polls bring just a little bit of relief for LAB but it’s going to be a struggle to win most seats

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LAB moves to 4% lead with Populus online LAB 36= CON 32-3 LD 9+1 UKIP 13= GRN 6+2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2015 Overnight LAB retained YouGov Sun poll lead LAB 33% CON 31% UKIP 17% GRNS 8% LD 7% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2015 But still this battle is mighty tight At the end of a week that has seen the worst LAB polling shares since GE10 the latest two polls from Populus and YouGov will come as something of a relief. As…

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Local By-Elections: January 22nd 2014 – Harry Hayfield

Local By-Elections: January 22nd 2014 – Harry Hayfield

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Good SNP by election hold in Kirkcaldy E SNP 47.3%+15.9 LAB 35.3 -11.8 CON 7.2 -2.3 GRN 4.1%+4.1 UKIP 3.8% +3.8 (Oth) 2.3% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2015 This was Harry’s ward description before the result. Kirkcaldy East on Fife (SNP defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 35, Scottish Nationalists 26, Liberal Democrats 10, Conservatives 3, Independents 3, Non Party Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 5) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,111,…

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TV debates plan B+1. Is Number 10 going to agree this time?

TV debates plan B+1. Is Number 10 going to agree this time?

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The broadcasters put forward new proposals for TV debates which now include SNP/PC+GRN http://t.co/zz2jDu1TX4 pic.twitter.com/qDZuehEBXl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2015 Leaders Debates; Oi…What about me? — George Galloway (@georgegalloway) January 22, 2015 “broadcasters remain committed to providing election debates in #GE2015..we will continue to work with all the parties to ensure they happen — Adam Boulton (@adamboultonSKY) January 22, 2015 Seven participants is just too many Not long to go before the election campaign starts and this afternoon…

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