Wikipedia has new polling table – ENGLAND ONLY – where CON led by 11.5 at GE10. 3 pollsters now providing this data pic.twitter.com/8U68NH31jx
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2015
As can be seen the picture is very mixed
In December I met some pollsters and some of their clients at the BES launch event and suggested that what would be enormously helpful was a breakdown of the England only figures. Whether it was my suggestion or not I don’t know but Ipsos-MORI and ICM are both now following Lord Ashcroft in providing this data.
These are, of course, only sub sets but England does make up about 87% of the samples in each poll.
There’s also the addition of separate England only table in the Wikipedia polling pages.
As the table above shows there’s a very mixed picture on England coming from the pollsters and it is hard to come to any firm views yet.
The only big trend is that none of the surveys have the Tories getting anywhere near the 11.5% England lead of 2010. Thus if the parties are level-pegging in England that is a 5.75% CON to LAB swing.