SPIN opens its GE15 turnout market with 70% the mid-point Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s GE15 coverage, has put up a range of new spread markets including one on the turnout level. The opening spread is 69.7% – 70.3% making a mid-point of 70%. If you think that it is going to be higher then you bet on 70.3% and for every percentage point above that level you will receive your initial stake level. So if it was 73.3%…
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The betting from Thanet South where Nigel Farage is hoping to become an MP pic.twitter.com/AyGbv138N9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2015 The 3 @LordAshcroft polls in Thanet South. LAB is competitive as well as CON & UKIP pic.twitter.com/EbWKFGNnYx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2015 If the edge is coming off the purples Farage might fail I’ve just caught up with the excellent BBC2 programme that was screened on Sunday night – “Meet the Ukippers” which focuses on Thanet…
The decline of UKIP from another pollster – ComRes phone poll for Mail CON 34 (+3) LAB 32 (+2) LIB 8 (=) UKIP 13 (-4) GRN 6 (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 ENGLAND ONLY shares from ComRes/Mail poll CON 36 LAB 32 LD 7 UKIP 14 GRN 9 A CON to LAB swing of 3.4% since GE10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 So the second phone poll of the day is out and, like Lord Ashcroft this afternoon, shows UKIP on the decline. But unlike Ashcroft…
Purples drop 5 while LAB edges close to overall majority The weekly Ashcroft phone poll continues to surprise us. From being, until last week, the only pollster not to have recorded a LAB lead in 2015 the latest, published at 4pm, has the very best figures for LAB in a phone poll since the Guardian’s ICM poll in mid-December. For UKIP the fall is in line with the trend if not the scale recorded by other pollsters. It does seem…
After the Oscars and cash for access Marf gives her take pic.twitter.com/zQwWGcTx67 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 CON & LAB level-pegging in latest Populus Lab 32 (-), Con 32 (+1), LD 9 (-), UKIP 15 (-2) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each – today's poll 32% for both — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 There are more LAB…
Tonight’s dramatic big political news pic.twitter.com/erNWzuBYo5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 22, 2015 Both are former Foreign Secretaries
Leaders' Debates unlikely to happen say the Lib Dems http://t.co/45SV5Jz0Ch pic.twitter.com/mL0mFHr1T6 — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 22, 2015 Today reports emerged that Liberal Democrat sources say the televised leaders’ debates are unlikely to happen. The Lib Dems aren’t happy because Nick Clegg is only in two of the three debates, and is relegated to the likes of Plaid Cymru, who received one-sixtieth as many votes in 2010 as the Lib Dems did. A spokesman for Clegg said the Lib Dem leader’s…