Turnout’s going to be higher surely on May 7th – but how much higher?

Turnout’s going to be higher surely on May 7th – but how much higher?

SPIN opens its GE15 turnout market with 70% the mid-point

Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s GE15 coverage, has put up a range of new spread markets including one on the turnout level. The opening spread is 69.7% – 70.3% making a mid-point of 70%.

If you think that it is going to be higher then you bet on 70.3% and for every percentage point above that level you will receive your initial stake level. So if it was 73.3% and you had bet £50 then you’d win 50 times 3 = £150. If, however, it was 66.3% then you’d be out by a gap of 4 so you would lose four times £50 £200.

With spread bets the more you are right the more you win. Alas it works the opposite if you’ve got it wrong

On this market my sense at the moment is that the opening range is on the high side and that it will be sub-70%. There is a tendency to regard every forthcoming general election as “the most important ever” perhaps over-stating how many voters will actually bother to record their choice.

We saw a big uplift in 2010 but I don’t expect a similar jump this time although I think it will be higher.

One technical factor that might help a higher level is the cleansing of the electoral rolls that has been taking place.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

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