Whatever could this mean? – Updated with the figures

Whatever could this mean? – Updated with the figures

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The second interesting daily @YouGov poll in a row just in. Movement for two different parties. Result on http://t.co/U0QFiRQF8U at 10.30pm. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) March 3, 2015 The next twenty-four hours is going to be fascinating, as well as this YouGov poll, at 5pm on Wednesday, Lord Ashcroft publishes his latest batch of constituency polling from both England and Scotland as we approach the General Election campaign proper starts shortly and we’re 15 days away from possibly the…

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February 2015 Issues Index

February 2015 Issues Index

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The NHS remains the most important issue facing Britain despite falling 4% in the last month. Ipsos Mori note Those who are more likely to mention the NHS include those aged 55+ (51%), ABC1s (45%) and those in the South East outside of London (56%) compared with Londoners (34%), C2DEs (36%) and those aged 18-34 (24%). Could Ed Miliband’s plan to make the NHS central to the General Election have an effect, as the older age groups see the NHS…

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February’s PB Polling Average: Crossover

February’s PB Polling Average: Crossover

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The mid-term effects look to be finally wearing off Two months out from the election and from the Politicalbetting Polling Average, the Tories look to be coming into form at the right time. I say ‘look to be’ because there is a little more to it than meets the eye, but first the numbers for February, which are: Con 34.0 (+2.5), Lab 33.6 (+1.0), UKIP 12.0 (-2.5), LD 7.6 (-0.4), Grn 7.0 (-0.3), Oth 5.8 (-0.3) While we should be…

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The great methodology divide: All the CON leads are from phone polls – all but one of the LAB leads are from online surveys

The great methodology divide: All the CON leads are from phone polls – all but one of the LAB leads are from online surveys

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Greater certainty to vote amongst CON voters puts the blues back into the lead with Ashcroft The latest Ashcroft weekly phone poll is out and show a move back to CON and a 5% decline in the LAB vote. The figures and trend are in the chart above. The CON lead is almost totally down to turnout weighting. Before that was applied LAB was ahead by a small margin. Problem for them is that its voters are less certain to…

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If the early March polling this year is as good a pointer as March 2010 then the outcome is on a knife-edge

If the early March polling this year is as good a pointer as March 2010 then the outcome is on a knife-edge

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The above chart shows the CON lead in the polls from the first week in March 2010 and compares them with the actual election result nine and a half weeks later. As can be seen the polling at this stage proved to be a reasonably good pointer and in some cases better than the final polls. Of course past performance is no guarantee about what’s going to happen but it’s interest to look at. It is perhaps worth pointing out…

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Why framing constituency battles on choosing individual MPs is the best defensive strategy for the LDs

Why framing constituency battles on choosing individual MPs is the best defensive strategy for the LDs

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The widespread presumption that the election is about parties is not always applicable There is an almost total obsession that the vote on May 7th is about parties reinforced by the fact that almost all the polling asks WHICH you will be supporting rather than WHO. In fact for many voters the primary consideration is who will be their representative at Westminster not the party brand. This is why incumbency can be so important and the relationship that individual MPs…

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Nigel Farage hints at another Tory defection to UKIP

Nigel Farage hints at another Tory defection to UKIP

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Nigel Farage hints at another Tory defection to UKIP, who should you be betting on? http://t.co/0v2XsQ5Wga pic.twitter.com/Um7zgGX438 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 1, 2015 Today it is being reported Asked if he was in talks with Tory MPs about more defections, Mr Farage said: “The last time I spoke about this I said I would be surprised if there were not more. “There is one conversation we are still having. But do you know what – it is not very relevant…

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Operation Save Dave is unlikely to succeed

Operation Save Dave is unlikely to succeed

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Front page of the Sunday Times on Osborne's plans to try & keep Dave as leader if it is Con most votes/Lab most seats pic.twitter.com/x0hA3Y7dFB — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 1, 2015 The Sunday Times reports (££) George Osborne held a dinner with Conservative whips on Monday night to discuss tactics for the days after the vote on May 7. Two senior MPs revealed that Tory high command is preparing to argue that Cameron has won a “moral victory” if he…

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