Fewer voters have made up their mind on how to vote than in the past

Fewer voters have made up their mind on how to vote than in the past

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Whilst most voters think the debates will influence the way the vote Ipsos Mori have done some polling which asks how many voters have made up their mind on how to vote, and what will influence the way they will vote. The fieldwork for the polling was early to mid February, so well before the recent contretemps over the debates. So David Cameron’s non appearance in the debates could fundamentally damage the Tories as we can see from the above…

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Nigel Farage’s offer to support a minority Conservative Government is a 2015 referendum

Nigel Farage’s offer to support a minority Conservative Government is a 2015 referendum

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As part of Nigel Farage’s book being serialised in the Telegraph, The UK Independence Party leader says that he is willing to make a deal with the Tories on the condition that they hold an EU referendum before Christmas. The detailed plans for a hung parliament set out that Ukip and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party would work together to support the Conservatives on a vote by vote basis. Ukip – forecast to gain up to six seats in the…

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Opinium and ComRes have LAB with 2% leads and both have Ed closing the gap on Dave in their leader ratings

Opinium and ComRes have LAB with 2% leads and both have Ed closing the gap on Dave in their leader ratings

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YouGov Sunday Times poll has CON & LAB level pegging CON loses its YouGov lead. Now level pegging CON 34% LAB 34% LD 7% UKIP 14% GRN 5%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2015 LAB retains 2pt lead with ComRes online for Indy on Sunday/S Mirror Con 33% (+1) Lab 35% (+1) LD 7% (NC) UKIP 16% (NC) Greens4% (NC) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2015 Today's changes in latest Opinium Observer poll CON 33-1 LAB 35 +1 LIB 7 -1 UKIP 14= GRN 7= Changes within margin of error — Mike…

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It’s inevitable under FPTP that many will vote AGAINST a party not FOR a likely loser

It’s inevitable under FPTP that many will vote AGAINST a party not FOR a likely loser

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(Pic Via @SNPout) We are likely to see more of this for other types of seats. Tactical voting guides pic.twitter.com/060CcTVFau — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2015 Voting smart might be the new clarion call Charts like the one above, that’s going the rounds on social media, looks set to play a big part at GE15. Scotland clearly is a special situation and you can understand why those that voted NO should be worried about the SNP picking up 40+…

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David Herdson looks at what might shift the polls in the 53 days that remain

David Herdson looks at what might shift the polls in the 53 days that remain

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How can we best predict the big campaign issues? Polls are snapshots, not predictions. It’s a common and accurate assertion and is one part in the explanation as to why the betting markets don’t match up with current polling. At the moment, the Conservatives are generally around 1/2 to win most seats at the election, while Labour are best priced at 15/8, despite current polling being neck-and-neck, which would translate to a comfortable Labour lead in seats were it to…

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Exactly a month from tomorrow voting will start in GE2015

Exactly a month from tomorrow voting will start in GE2015

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Why I’m betting on a turnout below 69% On April 13th, just a month on from today, I am advised that the first postal voting packs will start going out and the following morning voting will start in GE15. There’s no changing your mind once you’ve popped your ballot envelope into the letter box. All the experience is that most postal voters return their completed forms within the first forty-eight hours. The actual day that the postal mailings start is…

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UKIP moves to its highest ever level with Populus

UKIP moves to its highest ever level with Populus

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The Tories slip back into the 20s with Populus. UKIP up 3 Con 29 (-3) Lab 32 (-1) LD 8 (-1) UKIP 18 (+3) Gn 6 (nc) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2015 Are we seeing a UKIP revival? Populus today UKIP up 3 Ipsos yesterday up 4 YouGov yesterday up 2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2015 The move follows yesterday’s 4 point jump with Ipsos It is always said that one of the best signs of a polling trend is…

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For those who think that political betting markets are predictive check out what happened in 2010

For those who think that political betting markets are predictive check out what happened in 2010

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Spread markets. 0700 General Election day May 2010 Seat spreads CON LAB LD Betfair 319½-321 217½-220 82½-85½ Extrabet 316-321 218-223 78-82 SportingIndex 317-322 214-219 78-82 As we all remember LAB came out with 258 seats so those punters who placed spread bets on Gordon Brown’s party on election day five years ago did very nicely indeed. A £50 buy bet on LAB with SPIN on the morning of the 2010 general election would have been at a level 39 seats…

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