If the Tories can keep their losses to LAB down to fewer than 38 then they should come out with most seats

If the Tories can keep their losses to LAB down to fewer than 38 then they should come out with most seats

Comments 0 Comment

How the fight is on a knife edge Given the political and betting importance of which party wins most seats I’ve been looking at the maths to try to get a broad figure of what would be a CON victory on seats or a CON defeat. I’ve made several assumptions that clearly will impact on the equation. In broad terms the gap between the main parties as we start the formal campaign is 46 seats. So if there was no…

Read More Read More

If Sky News is right a move to get rid of Bercow is sensational

If Sky News is right a move to get rid of Bercow is sensational

Comments 0 Comment

The Government has reportedly tabled a motion to stop John Bercow's re-election as Speaker of the House of Commons pic.twitter.com/tuugM1lqQH — Sky News (@SkyNews) March 25, 2015 Speaker election rule change done under resolution giving Govt total control of Commons agenda for final days of Parlm't – well planned coup — Mark D'Arcy (@DArcyTiP) March 25, 2015 …but if other parties conclude Cons can't be trusted not to pull strokes like this, cd be long nights ahead for Con MPs…

Read More Read More

The Tories close the gap in Survation-Mirror poll to just 1%

The Tories close the gap in Survation-Mirror poll to just 1%

Comments 0 Comment

The trend in Survation's GE15 polling pic.twitter.com/BkpyCWmSgD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 New Survation poll for Daily Mirror has LAB 1 ahead LAB 33% -1 CON 32% +3 UKIP 18% -1 LD 8% -1 GRN 4% nc SNP 4% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 All polls, it seems, moving to level-pegging or thereabouts Two things stand out with the Survation-Mirror poll that’s just been released. Firstly the Tories have almost closed the gap although, it should be noted, the…

Read More Read More

ICM finds voters totally split by Cameron’s third term annoucement

ICM finds voters totally split by Cameron’s third term annoucement

Comments 0 Comment

The 2nd & 3rrd favourites for the CON leadership sitting either side of Cameron at PMQs pic.twitter.com/e8LuRnRgXm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 A new Guardian/ICM poll, just issued, of those planning to watch tomorrow’s C4 leaders’programme finds voters split 38-38 on Cameron’s 3rd term announcement As you’d expect Tom Clarke in the Guardian reports a partisan split in the responses. His report notes that with CON supporters, 56% to 27% believe his move was right. Among LAB supporters,…

Read More Read More

As Dave and Ed limber up for their final PMQs the last four polls have their parties level pegging

As Dave and Ed limber up for their final PMQs the last four polls have their parties level pegging

Comments 0 Comment

In vote terms this couldn’t be tighter This is extraordinary. In all the time I’ve been covering polling I cannot recall a sequence like the one we are seeing this week. Four polls on the trot all reporting LAB and CON with the same vote shares. In terms of seats level-pegging suits Ed Miliband much more than it does David Cameron. The latter needs to see his party at least three up across a range of firms to be confident…

Read More Read More

ComRes phone poll sees Labour up 3 and UKIP down 3

ComRes phone poll sees Labour up 3 and UKIP down 3

Comments 0 Comment

Another poll without a budget boost for the Tories As we’ve seen with some other pollsters, the big two are increasing their share of the vote, and UKIP falling back, as ComRes notes This represents the highest combined two-party vote share since September 2013. Individually, it is Labour’s highest share for six months and the Conservatives’ highest since November 2012. UKIP sees its vote share fall three points to 10%, the lowest in a ComRes phone poll in more than…

Read More Read More

With the campaign just about to start new BES polling suggests the the Tories will hang onto current levels of support…but

With the campaign just about to start new BES polling suggests the the Tories will hang onto current levels of support…but

Comments 0 Comment

With the formal hostilities due to start on Thursday with the Channel 4/Sky News event the British Election Study has new polling that looks at the CON record on key policies. Though BES data shows the Tories are unlikely to lose voters during the campaign, their ability to build support could be limited by discontent with some areas of policy as we enter the election campaign. BES Co-Director Professor Jane Green from The University of Manchester told a Political Studies…

Read More Read More

Given Dave’s more popular than CON his announcement should theoretically help LAB

Given Dave’s more popular than CON his announcement should theoretically help LAB

Comments 0 Comment

This from last week’s Ipsos-MORI poll What’ll Dave going at some point do to Lynton’s campaign plan? The latest Ipsos-MORI like leader like party ratings illustrate what is very common when it comes to public views of Cameron and his party: Invariably unlike the other party leaders he is a net asset securing better numbers than the Conservative party. In fact it is often quipped that what voters want is a LAB government led by David Cameron. So yesterday’s comments…

Read More Read More