These ICM sub-samples are very small but the detail of this breakdown is fascinating

These ICM sub-samples are very small but the detail of this breakdown is fascinating

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ICM Unlimited Inevitably when you have a 1,000 sample poll and then adjust for turnout after taking out the don’t knows the numbers you are left with can get very small. But I love the way ICM, in its general election datasets, is now breaking down constituencies by specific types. The group where there’s the biggest variation across the different seat types are those saying they’ll vote Lib Dem. Notice how in the final column, the CON-LAB marginals, we get…

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The main message from the Tories for the next fortnight

The main message from the Tories for the next fortnight

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Via @GoodwinMJ This looks like the closing theme of the Tory campaign. It could work pic.twitter.com/uLd6aYyg0U — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2015 Via @SamCoatesTimes: YouGov / Scotland 16-20 AprilSNP 49Lab 25Con 17LD 5Other 4No change — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2015 I think it's worth reminding ourselves that there are only 59 seats in Scotland and GE15 will be decided in English LAB-CON marginals — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2015

Marf’s summation as the big day gets closer

Marf’s summation as the big day gets closer

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If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. The worst pun of the day from the William Hill press officePunters Back Mili To Be Ed Boy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2015 ComRes/ITV: Who/which parties/leaders voters would like/not like involved in government. Bad for SNP/UKIP better LDs pic.twitter.com/x67E7i2XaS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2015

The Monday afternoon rolling polling blog

The Monday afternoon rolling polling blog

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Mondays are always a big day polling day. First off was Populus with a slight up-tick for LAB. This afternoon we’ll have ICM, which last week had a 6% CON lead, and Ashcroft. This evening there will be the daily YouGov. UPDATE Ashcroft national 4% CON lead + 2 new Scots polls @LordAshcroft national poll has CON 4% ahead pic.twitter.com/lVhz610Fob — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2015 Ashcroft Edinburgh S SNP ahead but close pic.twitter.com/P0qq9jjggY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April…

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Why this could be like 1992 when the polls were simply wrong

Why this could be like 1992 when the polls were simply wrong

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Elections & polling expert Keiran Pedley examines whether the UK polling industry could be about to experience a crisis not seen since the polls got it so wrong in 1992.  Those that follow polling closely will recall the famous situation in 1992 where the polls appeared to point to a Labour victory (of sorts) only for the Conservatives to prevail. Since that time, much work has gone into correcting those mistakes and subsequent election results have shown that the polling…

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The polls have the battle broadly tied – the spread betting markets have a CON 19 seat lead

The polls have the battle broadly tied – the spread betting markets have a CON 19 seat lead

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The week's national polling in fieldwork date order from http://t.co/zulWdj61nG pic.twitter.com/uL8ERlMPKn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2015 CON move to 19 seat lead on @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 commons spread betting market. pic.twitter.com/UxXwAbcV5z — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2015 Confusing picture remains after contrasting weekend polls – my weekly column for @BetfairPredicts http://t.co/0XONqz8JmO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2015 Can we expect a proper cross-over in the final 17 days?

Is 2015 the year the UK becomes Belgium?

Is 2015 the year the UK becomes Belgium?

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The latest @May2015NS forecast/predictions of the great and the good. pic.twitter.com/ZoYx4GTDzP — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 18, 2015 Is a Grand Coalition the only viable government after the election? Whilst fans of Poirot, TinTin, and the D’Hondt electoral voting system might seem some advantages of the UK becoming more like Belgium, I’m coming to the conclusion that we might not have a viable government possible, particularly if the SNP surge translates into the seat numbers the recent Scottish polling implies. In…

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Tories double their lead with Opinium to 4% – Update but YouGov has Lab 3% ahead

Tories double their lead with Opinium to 4% – Update but YouGov has Lab 3% ahead

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Opinium/Observer fieldwork began just before the debate with “most” responses after it. So the move might reflect it, but all usual caveats — Matt Singh NCP (@MattSingh_) April 18, 2015 The fieldwork started just before Thursday’s debate with most responses after it, tonight’s YouGov which should be out later, was entirely after the debate. This is essentially margin of error changes, but like yesterday’s Survation, it should be heartening for the Tories, especially with the England only polling, it might…

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