The Monday afternoon rolling polling blog

The Monday afternoon rolling polling blog

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Mondays are always a big day polling day. First off was Populus with a slight up-tick for LAB. This afternoon we’ll have ICM, which last week had a 6% CON lead, and Ashcroft. This evening there will be the daily YouGov. UPDATE Ashcroft national 4% CON lead + 2 new Scots polls @LordAshcroft national poll has CON 4% ahead pic.twitter.com/lVhz610Fob — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2015 Ashcroft Edinburgh S SNP ahead but close pic.twitter.com/P0qq9jjggY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April…

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Why this could be like 1992 when the polls were simply wrong

Why this could be like 1992 when the polls were simply wrong

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Elections & polling expert Keiran Pedley examines whether the UK polling industry could be about to experience a crisis not seen since the polls got it so wrong in 1992.  Those that follow polling closely will recall the famous situation in 1992 where the polls appeared to point to a Labour victory (of sorts) only for the Conservatives to prevail. Since that time, much work has gone into correcting those mistakes and subsequent election results have shown that the polling…

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The polls have the battle broadly tied – the spread betting markets have a CON 19 seat lead

The polls have the battle broadly tied – the spread betting markets have a CON 19 seat lead

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The week's national polling in fieldwork date order from http://t.co/zulWdj61nG pic.twitter.com/uL8ERlMPKn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2015 CON move to 19 seat lead on @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 commons spread betting market. pic.twitter.com/UxXwAbcV5z — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2015 Confusing picture remains after contrasting weekend polls – my weekly column for @BetfairPredicts http://t.co/0XONqz8JmO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2015 Can we expect a proper cross-over in the final 17 days?

Is 2015 the year the UK becomes Belgium?

Is 2015 the year the UK becomes Belgium?

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The latest @May2015NS forecast/predictions of the great and the good. pic.twitter.com/ZoYx4GTDzP — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 18, 2015 Is a Grand Coalition the only viable government after the election? Whilst fans of Poirot, TinTin, and the D’Hondt electoral voting system might seem some advantages of the UK becoming more like Belgium, I’m coming to the conclusion that we might not have a viable government possible, particularly if the SNP surge translates into the seat numbers the recent Scottish polling implies. In…

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Tories double their lead with Opinium to 4% – Update but YouGov has Lab 3% ahead

Tories double their lead with Opinium to 4% – Update but YouGov has Lab 3% ahead

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Opinium/Observer fieldwork began just before the debate with “most” responses after it. So the move might reflect it, but all usual caveats — Matt Singh NCP (@MattSingh_) April 18, 2015 The fieldwork started just before Thursday’s debate with most responses after it, tonight’s YouGov which should be out later, was entirely after the debate. This is essentially margin of error changes, but like yesterday’s Survation, it should be heartening for the Tories, especially with the England only polling, it might…

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Tories a 64% chance on Betfair to win most seats but Mliband and Cameron level-pegging on who’ll be the post-election PM

Tories a 64% chance on Betfair to win most seats but Mliband and Cameron level-pegging on who’ll be the post-election PM

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Meanwhile I like this new SPIN market which I suggested to the firm after someone posted the idea on a previous thread. Quite hard to think through the permutations given that 1 is a given. Tonight I’m expecting the ICM Wisdom Index in the Sunday Telegraph and the usual Opinium and YouGov polls. O’m not aware of any other at the moment. How many PMs in 2015? Spread betting market from @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1Current 1.5-1.7 pic.twitter.com/fZME7H3BMY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April…

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David Herdson on why it suits all that a debate on the economy is effectively closed down

David Herdson on why it suits all that a debate on the economy is effectively closed down

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Contradictory nuances make it hard for both CON or LAB You might think that the extremely positive employment figures released yesterday would be cause for a great deal of campaigning from the Conservatives, both positively on their record and negatively against Labour. After all, the repeated criticisms and past predictions of doom from the Eds Balls and Miliband can now be set against the facts of the UK having one of the fastest-growing economies in the developed world, record employment,…

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For only the second time ever Survation has CON ahead

For only the second time ever Survation has CON ahead

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The turning of the tide or just sample variation? Survation trend chart including their latest with CON lead pic.twitter.com/CtBrHBYt9Y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 CON take the lead in D Mirror Survation pollCON 34% (+4); LAB 33% (-2); UKIP 17% (+1); LD 7% (-1); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 3% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 This is only the second time Survation has ever shown the Tories in the lead, since they started in 2011… —…

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