If you’ve been seat betting based on the Ashcroft polls then Nuneaton could be the first test

If you’ve been seat betting based on the Ashcroft polls then Nuneaton could be the first test

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Ashcroft polling Nuneaton pic.twitter.com/c91MlK6Rsd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 17, 2015 A look forward to election night The point I’ll be waiting for on the night will be the first LAB-CON marginals to declare. These are the seats that will determine which party comes top and all that could mean in the post-election bantering. Looking at the Press Association expected declaration timings we are not going to get much on these seats before 1am when the Nuneaton result is scheduled….

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What we need is for individual pollsters to produce results that are completely out of character

What we need is for individual pollsters to produce results that are completely out of character

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A Populus CON lead perhaps would speak volumes Mark Pack makes an excellent point that if you look at movements pollster by pollster then there has actually been very little volatility. This is one of the basic rules of polling analysis – you shouldn’t compare one firm’s poll with another and then deduce that there has been a trend. In the run up to this election Monday and Friday morning’s, as we saw again yesterday, have generally brought reassuring news…

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The big unknown – the large number of polling respondents saying they don’t know

The big unknown – the large number of polling respondents saying they don’t know

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New @Survation Record  Scotland pollSNP 51 (+4) Lab 26 (nc)   Con 14% (-2) LD 5% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 CON edges to 1% lead in latest YouGov poll for the Sun CON 35 (+2) LAB 34 (=) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 12 (-2) GRN 5 (=) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015

CON 6% lead in latest Ashcroft national poll while in new seat polls UKIP continues to struggle

CON 6% lead in latest Ashcroft national poll while in new seat polls UKIP continues to struggle

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CON 6% ahead in latest @LordAshcroft national pic.twitter.com/CJnUmFY15G — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 CON move to 6% lead in @LordAshcroft national pollCON 36+2LAB 30=LD 9-1UKIP 11-2GN 7+3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 Ashcroft Gt Yarmouth CON hold pic.twitter.com/l69frq8cPG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 Ashcroft Cannock Chase LAB gain pic.twitter.com/tpWLHK4csj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 Ashcrfot Castle point CON hold pic.twitter.com/6Qt6Yk9dEK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 Ashcroft – Gt Grimsby LAB…

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ICM have 3% CON lead while Populus have a 3% LAB one. In Scotland TNS has SNP 32% ahead

ICM have 3% CON lead while Populus have a 3% LAB one. In Scotland TNS has SNP 32% ahead

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CON extend lead to 3 in latest Guardian ICM poll pic.twitter.com/4pTbLA8dMQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 It’s almost no change with Populus The Populus figures CON 33%GRN 5%LAB 36%LD 8%UKIP 14% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27, 2015 TNS has SNP with 32% lead in Scotland New TNS Scotland poll has SNP with 32% leadSNP 54% (+2), Lab 22% (-2), Con 13% (0), LD 6% (0), Green 2% (-1), UKIP 2% (+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 27,…

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This could have been the moment when Boris lost the next CON leadership contest

This could have been the moment when Boris lost the next CON leadership contest

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Being able to confront Ed was an opportunity that he fluffed For me one of the best bits of TV during the campaign was at the end of yesterday’s Andrew Marr show when the programme’s two main participants traditionally join each other on the sofa for the closing couple of minutes. This time it was Boris and Ed and the wide judgement was that the Mayor lost. This is how Nick Robinson saw it. Wonder how many Tories still think…

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The Deputy PM after the election betting

The Deputy PM after the election betting

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Paddy Power have put up a market on who will be the Deputy Prime Minister after the General Election. Given the recent pronouncements of Nick Clegg ruling out the Lib Dems joining a Lab/SNP coalition and Vince Cable saying he could stomach another coalition with the Tories (though he would like George Osborne’s job) it might not be wise to back them, particularly based on projections/forecasts the numbers for a Con/Lib Dem coalition don’t look possible. Tim Farron might be worth backing,…

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Shy Kippers might be a problem for pollsters like shy Tories were in the 90s

Shy Kippers might be a problem for pollsters like shy Tories were in the 90s

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Could the (phone) pollsters be underestimating the UKIP support? Shy isn’t the first adjective I’d normally associate with UKIP supporters, but ever since David Cameron’s (in)famous comment about UKIP being a bunch of  “fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists mostly” there’s been a perception that UKIP are the BNP in blazers. But look at the above chart from YouGov, it might be indicative that some Kippers are shy about admitting who they really support. We’ve seen polling that shows, UKIP…

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