Ashcroft polling Nuneaton pic.twitter.com/c91MlK6Rsd
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 17, 2015
A look forward to election night
The point I’ll be waiting for on the night will be the first LAB-CON marginals to declare. These are the seats that will determine which party comes top and all that could mean in the post-election bantering.
Looking at the Press Association expected declaration timings we are not going to get much on these seats before 1am when the Nuneaton result is scheduled.
This Midlands seat is LAB target number 32 from CON in England and Wales which would change hands on a 2.32% swing. A successful CON defence would be a good pointer to them winning most seats. A loss a bad one.
Nuneaton looks set also to be the first LAB-CON marginal in England and Wales where Lord Ashcroft has carried constituency polling. His last there, carried out in March, (see above) had LAB taking it on a 5% swing. What will be interesting for me is not just the result here but what it says about the many other 100 or so seats that Lord Ashcroft has polled which have had a big impact on constituency betting markets.
If on the night the Ashcroft polling prove to be good predictors then betting prices linked to his seat polls will harden. If not then the other way.
Now I know that Lord A describes his polls as snapshots but they have had a big impact on the betting. What is important is to look at the fieldwork dates. Polling done as far back as July might be less relevant.
CON take 1% lead with TNS
LAB 33% (-1), CON 34% (+2), LIB DEM 7% (-1), UKIP 15% (0), GREEN 5% (0), OTHER 5% (-1)
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2015