politicalbetting.com

Before we start looking at coming party leadership contests and the polling for the general election let’s first offer our congratulations to those who called it right. On PB there was JackW who has triumphed once again nd I’ve sent him a personal message. I’ve also exchanged emails already with Oxford’s Stephen Fisher whose ElectionsEtc has been taking a view on the bias in the polls for which he and his team have been totally vindicated. Stephen is one of…

Read More Read More

We are now predicting a Conservative MAJORITY of 3. Finishing with 327 – with a winning post now of 324 @itvnews — Chris Ship (@chrisshipitv) May 8, 2015 Whilst Mark Reckless’ decision to defect to UKIP now looks, well, erm Reckless as the Tory MP for Devizes enjoys his loss Hallelujah. Mark Reckless out. Don't let the door hit your fat arse as you leave. — Claire Perry (@claire4devizes) May 8, 2015 TSE

A string of high profile MPs have lost, including cabinet ministers, and rumours that Nick Clegg is set to quit as leader and politics today. Looking like a truly terrible night for the Lib Dems. http://t.co/2zxyQwejVU pic.twitter.com/Te15FV3AZV — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 8, 2015 It gets worse for the Lib Dems. pic.twitter.com/asG9QKRFXv — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 8, 2015 So far looking like a great night for the Tories, in Lab's top 5 targets, the Tories have increased their majorities. — TSE…

Read More Read More

It appears the Tory anti SNP line has worked in England and the SNP are crushing all before them – It is hard to see the Union continuing for much longer So far in Scotland. SNP: 19. LAB: 0 CON: 0 LDEM: 0 UKIP: 0 GRN: 0 — Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 8, 2015 Tories HOLD Warwickshire North. Labour's number one target seat. — Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 8, 2015 The Tories have increased their majority from 54 to 2,973 in Warwickshire North. — Britain Elects…

Read More Read More

Douglas Alexander, Labour’s election chief, becomes the first high profile loser tonight as he loses Paisley and Renfrewshire South Paisley and Renfrewshire South result: SNP – 50.9% (+32.9) LAB – 38.6% (-21.0) CON – 7.6% (-2.3) LDEM – 2.2% (-7.3) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 8, 2015 Kilmarnock and Loudoun constituency result: SNP – 55.7% (+29.7) LAB – 30.4% (-22.2) CON – 12.5% (-1.6) LDEM – 1.5% (-5.9) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 8, 2015 I have no words, the SNP have gone from 12,000 votes to 30,000…

Read More Read More

Perhaps the exit poll underestimated the Blues? Could a Tory Majority be possible – We need more results Declaration nuneaton now.. Conservatives INCrease majority over labour from 2000 to 5000…. Extraordinary. — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 8, 2015 Exit poll model suggested 1pt swing to Lab in Nuneaton, instead 3 pt swing to Con in absolutely vital marginal battleground seat — Rob Ford (Britain) (@robfordmancs) May 8, 2015 TSE

But we need more reuslts to see if the exit poll is right Swindon North constituency result: CON – 50.3% (+5.7) LAB – 27.8% (-2.7) UKIP – 15.4% (+11.7) LDEM – 3.3% (-14.0) GRN – 3.3% (+2.3) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 7, 2015 Labour source suggests they have lost every seat they held in Scotland. Extraordinary. #GE2015 — Kevin Schofield (@schofieldkevin) May 7, 2015 Vote shares in my 12,000 sample post-vote poll: CON 34%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%, SNP 5%,…

Read More Read More