The first litmus test Nuneaton is a Tory Hold with a 3% swing to Con from Lab

The first litmus test Nuneaton is a Tory Hold with a 3% swing to Con from Lab

Perhaps the exit poll underestimated the Blues? Could a Tory Majority be possible – We need more results Declaration nuneaton now.. Conservatives INCrease majority over labour from 2000 to 5000…. Extraordinary. — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 8, 2015 Exit poll model suggested 1pt swing to Lab in Nuneaton, instead 3 pt swing to Con in absolutely vital marginal battleground seat — Rob Ford (Britain) (@robfordmancs) May 8, 2015 TSE

The swing to the Tories from Lab in Swindon North could mean the exit poll is right

The swing to the Tories from Lab in Swindon North could mean the exit poll is right

But we need more reuslts to see if the exit poll is right Swindon North constituency result: CON – 50.3% (+5.7) LAB – 27.8% (-2.7) UKIP – 15.4% (+11.7) LDEM – 3.3% (-14.0) GRN – 3.3% (+2.3) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 7, 2015 Labour source suggests they have lost every seat they held in Scotland. Extraordinary. #GE2015 — Kevin Schofield (@schofieldkevin) May 7, 2015 Vote shares in my 12,000 sample post-vote poll: CON 34%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%, SNP 5%,…

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The exit poll is great news for the Tories

The exit poll is great news for the Tories

Exit poll: Cons 316, Lab 239, LD 10, SNP 58, PC 4, UKIP 2, Green 2, Others 19 — Ross Hawkins (@rosschawkins) May 7, 2015 I would urge caution until we see quite a few actual results At the last two elections, the exit poll has been unerringly accurate, but this time, even the architects have their doubts, due to the emergence of UKIP and the SNP. There should be a few other exit polls, not quite as authoritative as…

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Your sortable & searchable PB guide to Labour’s top 80 CON targets in England and Wales

Your sortable & searchable PB guide to Labour’s top 80 CON targets in England and Wales

This is the real battle-ground The big question tonight is whether LAB can make enough gains from the Tories to offset the likely losses in Scotland where, on some polls, the red team could could every seat. The good news for them is that it is not CON which is benefiting but the SNP. This means that the loss of all 40 current LAB Scottish seats can be be offset, in terms of the most seats battle with the Tories,…

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LAB close the gap to 1 with Ipsos and it’s level-pegging with Ashcroft

LAB close the gap to 1 with Ipsos and it’s level-pegging with Ashcroft

And here's our final poll -Lab 35%, Cons 36%, UKIP 11%, LibDem 8% http://t.co/iAH7Vr5FhI — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) May 7, 2015 LAB voters with Ipsos more certain to vote than CON ones. See chart pic.twitter.com/Kk8D6TiQ8w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2015 Chart from @LordAshcroft final final poll. pic.twitter.com/EpJ40rxTko — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2015 All the final phone polls are showing moves to LAB – a common trend. I — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2015…

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GE 2015 – the view of the spread betting trader

GE 2015 – the view of the spread betting trader

4½ hours before voting starts – the spread betting markets from @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/lMxvAWzHll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2015 By Aidan Nutbrown, senior trader at Sporting Index with overall responsibility for the firm’s Election markets The regulars of this parish will no doubt be very familiar with our host’s frequent highlighting of the difference in Sporting Index’s Conservative seats price and our Labour seats price. Why is it that this market seems so different from most pollsters’ forecasts…

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Another 3 polls have it neck and neck on MegaPollingWednesday

Another 3 polls have it neck and neck on MegaPollingWednesday

Final @ComResPolls poll for @DailyMailUK Con 35% (NC) Lab 34% (+2) Lib Dem 9% (NC) UKIP 12% (-2) Green 4% (NC) Others 6% (NC) — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) May 6, 2015 25% of those likely to vote are undecided or may change their mind before tomorrow: @ComResPolls for @DailyMailUK — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) May 6, 2015 Preferred Prime Minister: David Cameron 52%, Ed Miliband 31% @ComResPolls for @DailyMailUK — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) May 6, 2015 BREAKING: Final YouGov/Sun poll for…

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