Guest Slot: Social media and shy rightwingers

Guest Slot: Social media and shy rightwingers

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Tissue Price on the polling errors across Europe The inquest into the polling disaster at the UK General Election continues. Matt Singh of NumberCruncherPolitics provided an excellent overview of the pollsters’ initial thoughts last week, ahead of the first meeting of the official BPC/MRS inquiry. Some pollsters think faulty sampling was the principal cause of error, some blame turnout modelling, and one thinks a genuine late swing was the biggest single factor. Dan Hodges channels Emile Zola in accusing the…

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Local By-Election Preview : June 25th 2015

Local By-Election Preview : June 25th 2015

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Market and West Deeping on South Kesteven (Deferred Election: One Conservative Defence and Two Independent Defences from 2011) Result of council at last full election (2011): Conservatives 39, Independents 12, Labour 6, Liberal Democrats 1 (Conservative majority of 20) Result of ward at last full election (2011) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: 959, 766 (40%) Independents: 847, 844, 533 (35%) Green Party: 622, 330, 302 (26%) Candidates duly nominated: Conservative: Nick Neilson Liberal Democrats: Adam Brookes Independents: Ashley Baxter, Bob…

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Guest slot: The boundaries of reason

Guest slot: The boundaries of reason

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Antifrank looks at The boundaries of reason: the possible shape of the 2020 election I previously looked back at the impact of demographic changes on party politics from 1992 to 2015.  That’s all well and good, but what changes can we expect for 2020?  To determine that we first need to consider what the new boundaries are likely to look like. It might be thought that the future musings of the Boundary Commissions are imponderable, but we have quite a…

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This morning’s must read

This morning’s must read

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Guardian front page via @suttonnick Clegg offered to resign as Lib Dem leader in May 2014 http://t.co/gTWlPjXRRw pic.twitter.com/zTWhL3GspY — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 24, 2015 The Guardian have a fascinating and detailed piece on the Lib Dem time in government, it is clear how much reneging on their pre-election tuition fees pledge damaged the Lib Dems and the events of May 2014 and the failed Oakeshott attempt to remove Clegg, Vince Cable’s reputation isn’t enhanced by this story. Nick Clegg discussed resigning…

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Another reason to justify Zac’s status as favourite

Another reason to justify Zac’s status as favourite

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Another reason why @ZacGoldsmith is the favourite to be the next Mayor of London. http://t.co/S7hfYnxdwv pic.twitter.com/FTAqGBMejz — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 24, 2015 London calling for a third time for the architect of the Tory general election victory? At the general election in London, relatively speaking, Labour did better, the Tories did worse than the rest of the country, which might indicate a slight resistance to Crosby’s methods. However given his past success in London with the current mayor, this should…

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Two new betting markets

Two new betting markets

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Following on from Tissue Price’s piece yesterday, Ladbrokes have put a market on most seats without the SNP. As he said yesterday,  If, when the market goes up, you see a price bigger than this on any of these I’d tentatively suggest that it might be value. Labour 4/7 Green 7/2 Conservatives 6/1 Meanwhile Paddy Power have a market on who will get the second highest number of first preferences in the Labour leadership election. The head says Yvette Cooper, the heart says…

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Liz Kendall, virtually unknown 8 weeks ago, in 2nd place in ORB LAB leadership poll

Liz Kendall, virtually unknown 8 weeks ago, in 2nd place in ORB LAB leadership poll

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Yvette should be the most disappointed This ORB poll for the Independent was conducted among all voters, not Labour members, Andy Burnham will be delighted with these figures, he can cite that the wider electorate perceive him as the candidate who will do the most to improve Labour’s chances at the next election, which should do his leadership ambitions no harm. The most interesting aspect of this poll is Liz Kendall’s numbers, she’s second to Burnham in this poll, both…

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Holyrood 2016: who will come second?

Holyrood 2016: who will come second?

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Making a tissue on a “Betting Without” market This is a betting thread without a market as yet. However, the best prices on any political market can usually be found within either the first six hours or the last six. So a little forethought as to what you’d be prepared to back – and at what price – can often be rewarded handsomely. Someone launching a “without the SNP” market on Holyrood is only going to be a matter of…

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