Cameron could win the vote and still lose his job Selling the deal to the country was always going to be the easy bit. The tough ask for David Cameron is selling it to his party. The outcome of this week’s summit is, in that sense, one step forwards and two steps back. Simply getting the issue formally into the EU’s ongoing agenda was an achievement but one that is heavily diluted by the acceptance that there’ll be no treaty…
Blimey. http://t.co/EXUOh5EZsL #AcropolisNow pic.twitter.com/U0FuVS3dot — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 26, 2015 It will be a case of this referendum dominating events for the eight days at least, and undoubtedly longer, it appears that Alexis Tsipras is trying to give their creditors a Grecian Burn, how will they respond? The Guardian reported last week that A recent opinion poll for the news website Newsit showed as many as 74% of Greeks back the euro – with fully 50% saying they would be prepared…
It’s one of the toughest gigs in politics – going on after TV after a defeat to explain that, really,  your party had done quite well in the circumstances. The man holding the Labour short straw on the BBC on Friday morning April 10th 1992 was a middle-rankingsShadow minister — one Tony Blair. I came across the BBC archive on YouTube few days ago, which is the video above, I didn’t see it at the time having worked through the…
Tissue Price on the polling errors across Europe The inquest into the polling disaster at the UK General Election continues. Matt Singh of NumberCruncherPolitics provided an excellent overview of the pollsters’ initial thoughts last week, ahead of the first meeting of the official BPC/MRS inquiry. Some pollsters think faulty sampling was the principal cause of error, some blame turnout modelling, and one thinks a genuine late swing was the biggest single factor. Dan Hodges channels Emile Zola in accusing the…
Market and West Deeping on South Kesteven (Deferred Election: One Conservative Defence and Two Independent Defences from 2011) Result of council at last full election (2011): Conservatives 39, Independents 12, Labour 6, Liberal Democrats 1 (Conservative majority of 20) Result of ward at last full election (2011) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives: 959, 766 (40%) Independents: 847, 844, 533 (35%) Green Party: 622, 330, 302 (26%) Candidates duly nominated: Conservative: Nick Neilson Liberal Democrats: Adam Brookes Independents: Ashley Baxter, Bob…
Antifrank looks at The boundaries of reason: the possible shape of the 2020 election I previously looked back at the impact of demographic changes on party politics from 1992 to 2015. That’s all well and good, but what changes can we expect for 2020? To determine that we first need to consider what the new boundaries are likely to look like. It might be thought that the future musings of the Boundary Commissions are imponderable, but we have quite a…
Guardian front page via @suttonnick Clegg offered to resign as Lib Dem leader in May 2014 http://t.co/gTWlPjXRRw pic.twitter.com/zTWhL3GspY — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 24, 2015 The Guardian have a fascinating and detailed piece on the Lib Dem time in government, it is clear how much reneging on their pre-election tuition fees pledge damaged the Lib Dems and the events of May 2014 and the failed Oakeshott attempt to remove Clegg, Vince Cable’s reputation isn’t enhanced by this story. Nick Clegg discussed resigning…
Another reason why @ZacGoldsmith is the favourite to be the next Mayor of London. http://t.co/S7hfYnxdwv pic.twitter.com/FTAqGBMejz — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 24, 2015 London calling for a third time for the architect of the Tory general election victory? At the general election in London, relatively speaking, Labour did better, the Tories did worse than the rest of the country, which might indicate a slight resistance to Crosby’s methods. However given his past success in London with the current mayor, this should…