The qualities LAB leadership voters are looking for – knowing how to win elections ranks 6th
So not a lot for Osbo to worry about for GE2020 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Antifrank considers what the Blairites could do if Liz Kendall comes last
Go fourth and multiply The Labour leadership election hasn’t gone according to the Blairites’ plan, to put it mildly. Dan Jarvis declined to run and Chuka Umunna launched an in-and-out campaign that prefigured the performance of England’s top order in the last Test, leaving Liz Kendall as the sole standard bearer of the right of the Labour party in the contest. She has chosen, probably unwisely, to drop some truth bombs on her electorate. This has not gone down well. …
YouGov Poll: Why Corbyn is winning but still unlikely to win
Keiran Pedley on the sensational survey for the Times Last night, YouGov released a poll on the Labour leadership that has thrown something of a hand grenade into the contest. After rumours that private polling was showing Jeremy Corbyn ahead we now have a poll showing exactly that. In fact, the first preference numbers in this poll are: CORBYN 43% BURNHAM 26% COOPER 20% KENDALL 11% Not only does Corbyn win on first preferences (and by a country mile) but…
YouGov poll finds Corbyn beating Burnham
Bloody hell. Corbyn winning the Labour leadership according to a YouGov poll via @SamCoatesTimes pic.twitter.com/XZWdWyvwy1 — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 21, 2015 This probably explains why Corbyn is doing so well. pic.twitter.com/uokd6edjMb — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 21, 2015 How the front page of The Times is reporting their poll via @hendopolis pic.twitter.com/p7CQOlZEPk — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 21, 2015 This explains the recent price moves TSE
After a difficult couple of days Burnham still very strong favourite
Market update Watching the Betfair exchange a lot of money is being wagered on Corbyn tonight. & he's now back at a 20%+ chance. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2015
Labour is paying a price for its elongated leadership contest
If Labour had the courage to oppose the Welfare Bill, together we could have defeated the Tories. pic.twitter.com/pBGCF2wFBL — Liberal Democrats (@LibDems) July 21, 2015 The welfare vote abstention looks like a mistake I was recovering from an operation last night and am only now catching up on the big welfare vote in the commons. Labour’s abstention move does look like a mistake and was the product of the party not having a confident leader in place to steer the…
Donald Trump now topping a poll in race for the Republican nomination
Should we take this seriously or is it just a passing fad? With all the focus on Labour’s trials and tribulations as it goes through its leadership election we have not really focused on the coming fight for the White House in 2016 which almost certainly will be the biggest political painting event of next year. On the Democratic Party side things look relatively settled with Hillary Clinton the odds on favourite. The Republican battle looks to be the most…
Henry G Manson with an interesting LAB leadership bet
How are the 2nd and 3rd preferences going to work out? In all the discussion about the rights and wrongs of Labour’s response to the government’s Welfare Bill, this article from Gary Gibbon lays out one of the political factors for Burnham – the order of candidates between him and Yvette. Gibbon writes: ‘It’s a bit of mug’s game guessing the leadership contest results but the candidates are endlessly doing just that, gaming what second preferences they need to chase…