How are the 2nd and 3rd preferences going to work out?
In all the discussion about the rights and wrongs of Labour’s response to the government’s Welfare Bill, this article from Gary Gibbon lays out one of the political factors for Burnham – the order of candidates between him and Yvette. Gibbon writes:
‘Itâ€™s a bit of mugâ€™s game guessing the leadership contest results but the candidates are endlessly doing just that, gaming what second preferences they need to chase and what first preferences they might need to steal. That latter scenario is now going through some Burnham supportersâ€™ minds. If Andy Burnham came first and Jeremy Corbyn narrowly beat Yvette Cooper into second place, Andy Burnham might not be in a position to stay top of the pile in a second round because his harvest of second preferences might be meagre from Liz Kendall.
He might never get his hands on the Corbyn second preferences because the second round results could push Yvette Cooper ahead of Corbyn leaving Andy Burnham in third place and the next to be eliminated.’
The Constituency Labour Party (CLP) nominations race is close It is quite possible that Corbyn will finish highest in the first round before being rapidly overtaken. Similarly it’s possible as Gibbon describes that having Burnham could fall behind Cooper after Kendall’s nominations are applied. It’s going to be close, unpredictable but I’ve said from the outset that I didn’t think Burnham wasn’t sufficiently ahead to deserve such short-price favouritism.
The last Labour leadership contest had David Miliband in the lead on round one before getting famously pipped. In the Deputy contest Jon Cruddas led the first slap before Harriet Harman overtook Alan Johnson. It really wouldn’t be that big a shock if the first round leader didn’t go on and win the leadership. So having recommended backing Yvette Cooper when she was 9/4 and then 4/1, I think the following outcome is worth taking and also providing some value and insurance.
Ladbrokes: 1st preference vote leader not elected 2/1 (Ladbrokes).
I think evens and above is value. Personally I make Corbyn value to get the most first preference votes at 2/1 with Ladbrokes, but I prefer this other bet at the same price because of its versality.