David Herdson on “Miliband’s leadership landmine”

David Herdson on “Miliband’s leadership landmine”

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Whoever wins is likely to be there for the duration There’s something in Ed Miliband of the apocryphal academic who when presented with a result he disapproved of, stated “it might well work in practice but it doesn’t work in theory”. More than once, proposals that Ed Miliband advanced had the look and feel of dealing with the world in abstract rather than the messy and contradictory one we live in. The reforms he initiated to Labour’s leadership process are…

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At some stage the Hillary Clinton email row is going to impact on the nomination betting

At some stage the Hillary Clinton email row is going to impact on the nomination betting

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Surely she’s got less than an 83% chance of becoming the Democratic party nominee? Talk stateside of Joe Biden now seriously considering run for Democratic nomination in light of Hilary Clinton's faltering campaign to date. — Andrew Neil (@afneil) July 24, 2015 For those who’ve not been following the WH2016 race some of the shine is coming off Hillary’s nomination chances because of the email row. This relates to the period that she was Obama’s Secretary of State and the…

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Pick Corbyn now and do it all again in three years time?

Pick Corbyn now and do it all again in three years time?

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Don Brind on what could happen Always look on the bright side of life. That’s me. So, here’s my reason for saying Jeremy Corbyn is the best choice for Labour leader now. Because he’s the most easily dumpable in two or three years time. That fits in with my argument in a previous PB post that Labour will need to be ruthless in getting a new leader if they trail in the polls after the Tories elect their new leader…

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Local By-Election Results : July 23rd 2015

Local By-Election Results : July 23rd 2015

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Mill Hill on Blackburn with Darwen (Lab defence) Result: Labour 505 (59% -7%), United Kingdom Independence Party 179 (21%, no candidate in 2012), Conservatives 106 (12% -6%), Liberal Democrats 69 (8% -7%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 326 (38%) on a swing of 14% from Labour to United Kingdom Independence Party New Tredegar on Caerphilly (Lab defence) Result: Labour 648 (83% unchanged), United Kingdom Independence Party 90 (11%, no candidate in 2012), Conservatives 47 (6%, no candidate in 2012)…

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The latest PB/Polling Matters podcast: The YouGov LAB leadership poll with Sky political analyst Harry Carr

The latest PB/Polling Matters podcast: The YouGov LAB leadership poll with Sky political analyst Harry Carr

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Examining the most talked about survey since GE2015 In the latest Politicalbetting/Polling Matters podcast the focus is on the most talked about published poll that there has been since the General Election – the YouGov Times survey of those who next month will be voting for the next LAB leader. This, of course, flagged that Jeremy Corbyn had both a lead on first preferences and after the the second and third preferences were taken into account. There’s little doubt that…

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Four LAB defences and one LD one in tonight’s local by-elections

Four LAB defences and one LD one in tonight’s local by-elections

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Harry Hayfield’s review Mill Hill on Blackburn with Darwen (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 47, Conservatives 14, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour majority of 30) Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 967 (66%), Conservatives 264 (18%), Liberal Democrat 220 (15%) Candidates duly nominated: Alan Dean (Lib Dem), Michael Longbottom (UKIP), Carl Nuttall (Lab), Helen Tolley (Con) Blackburn, home of the former Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, was always supposed to be a rock solid Labour…

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This afternoon what’s only the eighth GE2020 voting intention poll since May 7th

This afternoon what’s only the eighth GE2020 voting intention poll since May 7th

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LDs in double figures in first VI poll following Farron's election as leader. See Ipsos-MORI July poll pic.twitter.com/OtOC8j6CwZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2015 Ipsos also asked whether the LAB4 were seen as potential PMs How are the LAB 4 seen as possible future PM's. This from July Ipsos-MORI poll pic.twitter.com/dgfiG59Je8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2015