A busy night of local by-elections previewed by Harry Hayfield

A busy night of local by-elections previewed by Harry Hayfield

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Hilton, Woodside and Stockethill (SNP defence) and Kincorth, Nigg and Cove (SNP defence) on City of Aberdeen Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 17, Scottish National Party 15, Liberal Democrats 5, Conservatives 3, Independents 3 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 5) Hilton, Woodside and Stockethill Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 1,421, 271 (45%) Scottish National Party 512, 823 (36%) Independents 87, 101, 55 (6%) Liberal Democrats 145 (4%) Green Party 99…

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Don Brind says he’s voting for party unity by putting Liz Kendall first

Don Brind says he’s voting for party unity by putting Liz Kendall first

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It was, if you like, my Liz Kendall moment Just as Kendall has been told she’s a Tory I was told “You should go and join the SDP”. It was wounding – the more so because it came from a friend. It was the 80s and we were on opposite sides of one of the many controversies inspired by or centred on Tony Benn. Happily she is still a friend and says now “The 80s were a mad time. We…

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The Corbyn polling could be the 2015 version of what happened to Hilary Benn in 2007

The Corbyn polling could be the 2015 version of what happened to Hilary Benn in 2007

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Don’t attach too much credence to numbers at this stage There have been only two Labour elections in recent times where there has been polling and we are able to look back and compare the survey numbers with the actual votes received. In 2010, as I’ve reported before, the final YouGov members’ survey taken after the voting had started showed EdM with a 4% lead in this part of the electoral college. David actually won this segment by 8.8%. Three…

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The Temperate Desert

The Temperate Desert

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Antifrank asks who will appeal best to centrist voters? The centre ground of politics used to be very crowded.  And with good reason.  Roughly half the electorate sit in the middle stratum of electoral geology.  In a YouGov poll taken just after the election, 13% described themselves as slightly left of centre, 19% described themselves as centre, 14% described themselves as slightly right of centre and a further 23% didn’t know where to place themselves (presumably they would regard themselves…

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The issues facing Britain: Immigration and NHS down/ Defence-terrorism sharply up

The issues facing Britain: Immigration and NHS down/ Defence-terrorism sharply up

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The July Ipsos MORI Issues index sees declines for immigration & NHS but big increase for defence/terrorism pic.twitter.com/VxHqDcxB6N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2015 Ipsos MORI: The differing view of CON & LAB voters on what they seeas most important issues pic.twitter.com/FGlPnXh8J3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2015 The Ipsos MORI issues index is unique. Sample asked entirely unprompted what they see as key issues. It's regarded as good test of salience — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29,…

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What the latest private LAB polling has done to the betting

What the latest private LAB polling has done to the betting

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Burnham the big loser after survey had him 3rd One of the great features now on the Betfair exchange for those who like trading is that with one click you can cash out and instantly get to a position where you are equal on all outcomes. Yesterday evening just after news of the latest private polling came out there was nearly £10,000 available on Betfair for those who wanted to lay Andy Burnham at the price of 2.1. Effectively this…

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“Private poll” seen by Mirror sees Corbyn with 22% lead on first prefs with Cooper pipping Burnham for 2nd place

“Private poll” seen by Mirror sees Corbyn with 22% lead on first prefs with Cooper pipping Burnham for 2nd place

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The private poll seen by Mirror with Corbyn 22% ahead & Cooper in 2nd place. http://t.co/b3wbQFQhtI pic.twitter.com/bSMovl8nhP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 28, 2015 It’s hard to comment on private polling and I’ve no idea about the veracity of it. But I don’t think that the Mirror would be flagging it in the way it is without it having some confidence about the source. The Corbyn lead is extraordinary and fits in with other indicators. The question is which of…

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