Corbyn price getting weaker – Burnham price hardening on Betfair
At his peak Corbyn was a 48% chance on Betfair – he’s now edged down to 38%. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Next Chancellor after Osborne betting
The next Chancellor of the Exchequer market that Ladbrokes have is a hard market to assess. There’s two major known unknowns, will David Cameron stand down in this parliament (potentially to maximise George Osborne’s chances of succeeding him) or will the result of the next election be the trigger for the Osborne’s successor? Sajid Javid is quite rightly the favourite to be the next Chancellor whilst Osborne is favourite to be the next Tory leader, however at 16/1 another Osborne…
Keiran Pedley: LAB’s making a big mistake to assume that the only way now is up
As CLP nominations close, with Jeremy Corbyn leading, Labour members must remember that its electoral fortunes can get worse as well as better A couple of weeks ago I wrote an article for the New Statesman in which I argued that Jeremy Corbyn was not the answer to Labour’s problems. Last week I was interviewed about it on the BBC and you can see the clip here. My reasoning is pretty straightforward, Labour can only win if its leader is seen as…
Biden said to be considering a bid for the presidency
Maybe Hillary could face a serious challenge after all for the Democratic nominationhttp://t.co/lRRnsR2eoM pic.twitter.com/yydhCSFdZz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2015 This could really shake up the WH2016 betting As I posted ten days ago a bet at 4/1 that someone other than Hillary would get the nomination was great value and I have a big position. Potential contenders have until now been overawed by the Hillary factor. But if one big player like Biden enters the fray then others…
Remember the Saturday when the Telegraph and Sky News both declared that Alan Johnson had won the deputy leader election
With AV LAB elections don’t always go to plan Remember June 2007? So many Labour MPs had chickened out of doing other than nominate Brown for leader that there weren’t enough left for another candidate to go on the ballot. The result – the party got what the polling indicated was a leader who was an electoral liability – not someone who could lead them into a fourth successive general election victory. Instead there was a hard-fought deputy race which…
David Herdson asks: Where are UKIP’s 34 peers?
An unreformed Lords shouldn’t be a closed shop for the old parties Sex, money and people in high places all make for a good scandal, as Lord Sewel found out to his cost this last week. And as usually happens when a member of the Lords gets into trouble, the opponents of the institution cite it as an example of the need for reform of it, or even its outright abolition. Not that there’s a chance of serious reform any…
Tim Farron’s LDs the main gainers, leaderless LAB the main losers in the July Local By-Election + overnight results
The overnight results Hilton, Woodside and Stockethill (SNP defence) and Kincorth, Nigg and Cove (SNP defence) on City of Aberdeen Hilton, Woodside and Stockethill Result: Scottish National Party 1,690 (55% +19%), Labour 771 (25% -20%), Conservative 350 (11%, no candidate in 2012), Green Party 130 (4% +1%), Liberal Democrats 125 (4% unchanged) Scottish National Party HOLD on the first count with a majority of 919 (30%) on a swing of 19.5% from Labour to SNP Kincorth, Nigg and Cove Result:…
Only 3 LAB leaders have ever won overall majorities and the creed of the most successful is now being dismissed as a “virus”
Electability has to be paramount or else what is the point? One of the things that is often said, particularly by Tories, is that excluding Tony Blair the last time Labour secured an overall working majority was in 1966. That was a very long time ago. For in Labour’s entire history just three leaders, the ones pictured above, have led led the party to working majorities at general elections. And only one of these, the “virus” as we are being…