The ethnic minority vote could be decisive in London’s Mayoral election where nearly 40% were born overseas

The ethnic minority vote could be decisive in London’s Mayoral election where nearly 40% were born overseas

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Survation finds generic LAB has 9% lead Some interesting polling from Survation this afternoon looks at the likely ethic voter impact in next May’s Mayoral election. Initially the sample was asked a generic question – see chart above. Respondents were then asked, following the clips of Goldsmith and Khan: If the election for the next Mayor of London were between the following candidates, whom would you vote for as the next Mayor of London with your first vote? Results were:…

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It takes a nation of millions to hold us back

It takes a nation of millions to hold us back

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Antifrank asks should the SNP commit to a second independence referendum? Picture yourself for a moment as Nicola Sturgeon. Right now, she presides over a hegemony.  At every level of Scottish politics, the SNP has routed its opponents.  It has 56 out of 59 MPs.  It has an absolute majority in the Scottish Parliament.  It has more local authority councillors than any other party. And the SNP is strengthening its grip.  In the most recent local authority by-elections, it is…

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Donald Trump continues to dominate the GOP nomination polls

Donald Trump continues to dominate the GOP nomination polls

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What the “experts” deemed a debate disaster hasn’t done him any harm It’s now a week and a half on from the first Republican nominee debate of the 2016 campaign – an event that delivered for Fox News its biggest audience of all time. Normally at this stage in a White House very few people are concerned with the minutiae of nomination battles and TV debate audiences are measured in hundreds of thousands not tens of millions. The reason, of…

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Al Gore – the 150/1 outsider for the Democratic Party nomination

Al Gore – the 150/1 outsider for the Democratic Party nomination

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Could 2016 be Bush v Gore not Bush v Clinton? You can see how Hillary Clinton’s issue with her private emails turns very messy and denies her the nomination, Joe Biden’s age is becoming a barrier to him getting the nomination, so much so, that’s he reportedly considering standing for only one term to calm those concerns about his age. The other day it was reported former Vice President and winner of the popular vote in the 2000 Presidential election, Al…

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How do you solve a problem like Jeremy?

How do you solve a problem like Jeremy?

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If Labour MPs want to remove Corbyn, they need to stop Corbyn having a honeymoon or polling bounce. If as expected Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader, then those inside the Labour party looking to depose Corbyn as leader before the  next general election might want to have a word with the Barrow & Furness MP, John Woodcock, who also is Liz Kendall’s campaign manager and remind him of his pre-election pledge. My pledge: am so confident Labour will build four Trident successor…

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If there is a Corbyn victory then it might make referendum NO bets look quite tempting

If there is a Corbyn victory then it might make referendum NO bets look quite tempting

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I’ve been trying to look at other political betting markets which might be affected if Corbyn does, as the YouGov numbers suggest, take the crown in the LAB leadership contest. A key one over an election that might well be taking place in the next twelve months, is the referendum on whether the UK should remain within the EU. Corbyn’s position is equivocal as seen in this recent report. It is not inconceivable that he could be on the leave…

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Corbyn will win but he is popular with the wrong people at the wrong time for the wrong reasons

Corbyn will win but he is popular with the wrong people at the wrong time for the wrong reasons

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Surfing a wave of superficial attractiveness can only get so far There is no good reason for believing that Jeremy Corbyn is not going to win the Labour leadership. The polls have all pointed heavily in that direction, constituency nominations have favoured him ahead of his rivals, union nominations (and organisation) will count for even more, and the late and huge surge of voters joining up to take part cannot rationally be explained other than as an active endorsement of…

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Keiran Pedley looks at whether Cameron could fight the 2020 general election

Keiran Pedley looks at whether Cameron could fight the 2020 general election

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What’s next for the Conservatives? Could David Cameron stay on and fight the 2020 General Election? Since the Conservatives somewhat unexpectedly won a majority in May most of the media attention has been focused on who the next Labour leader will be. But what about the Conservatives? As Labour tears itself apart it is easy to forget that the Tories have problems of their own. The party has never really ‘settled’ the issue of Europe and the upcoming EU referendum…

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