Yvette Cooper is now Labour’s best hope for returning to power argues Keiran Pedley but it’s important that Liz Kendall does well. Has there been a more turbulent 6 months in the history of the Labour Party? I am sure there has but it is hard to imagine. If we rewind but a few months, many thought that Labour was heading for government with Ed Miliband as Prime Minister and yet now it is genuinely quite difficult to imagine Labour…
If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well It were done quickly. Trading as short as 1/6, let us assume that Jeremy Corbyn wins. Let us also assume that the electoral cause of Labour will be better served by getting rid of him. Elections are won on the centre ground, and Stephen Bush has pretty conclusively shown that non-voters are not, collectively, an alternative viable route to victory. Even if Corbyn does manage to turn out a bunch of new…
As at 7.30pm Implied probabilities of Corbyn winning according to Betfair is 81% Cooper 11% Burnham 9% Kendall < 1% pic.twitter.com/f3e4TGUCSe — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 Dear Labour if you elect Corbyn expect stories like this every day of his leadership. http://t.co/PohoGZg2F8 pic.twitter.com/fhYTWfoPKi — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 TSE Update ORB poll finds 2/3rds of people think Corbyn would be unlikely to win next general election http://t.co/UKTllXYvf1 pic.twitter.com/T94zaDKM7E — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 Part II of the…
If true. Blimey with knobs on. http://t.co/VWVLRCJf3C pic.twitter.com/tUKTjJMjCw — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 7, 2015 If this story by the Mail is true then whilst it will make the whole process look even more shambolic it might indicate one of the candidates thinks they can still win with late votes. So whomever is the first to call for a delay might be the one to back as I can’t see Corbyn calling for a delay. One of the problems I foresee…
Why a clear win on first preferences is crucial The final reweighted YouGov poll on the labour leadership had Corbyn with an amazing 57% of first preferences. That was nearly a month ago and the chances are that he will struggle to be quite at that level when the official results are announced next Saturday morning. The size of his margin of victory is going to be very important because he will be taking over with less goodwill from his…
Team Burnham really should shout this from the rooftops. http://t.co/ustVi1YX7x pic.twitter.com/VFkhg85yss — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 6, 2015 The Observer have reported The head of Liz Kendall’s campaign has suggested that Labour supporters will give the party’s leadership to Jeremy Corbyn if they vote for Yvette Cooper. In a dramatic intervention less than a week before the result, Toby Perkins said he believed the complexities of the alternative vote (AV) system, under which voters’ second preferences play a decisive role, left…
We have the first poll with Trump leading Clinton. http://t.co/ADnajMGgy8 pic.twitter.com/zFySSGDJkJ — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 6, 2015 A poll by Survey USA was released this weekend and it found. Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton head-to-head, according to a new poll released Friday. The poll by SurveyUSA finds that matched up directly, Trump garners 45 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent. In other head-to-head matchups, Trump beats out Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) by 44 percent to 40 percent; Vice…
Latest @Survation / Mail on Sunday poll on the EU and Syria. Has Out/Leave leading via @suttonnick pic.twitter.com/CCpC5LZSFs — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2015 A year ago today The Sunday Times published a YouGov poll that had Yes ahead in the Scottish Independence referendum campaign. In the history of Politicalbetting.com no other opinion poll has generated quite so much comment and reaction. It wasn’t only PBers who reacted to this poll, it led to the three Westminster Unionist parties offering The…